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小分3种情况:6 r4 y2 o4 r p1 d' |
9 k% @6 O1 H$ ]# }% K
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。, ~# C) O2 e: m! ?' ?" Y Y- g5 h
4 h9 H3 |- k7 ]9 K& x. t& G- h3 a m2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
' O' T0 A n9 g& p) r2 I: q2 F3 C7 G. g0 }5 w
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
. @1 U: i3 s/ L p2 ]+ t4 S, M4 z2 x2 E
2张牌8或9点的情况有:# Z2 ^; {9 }+ t
1 x* _' V$ V, }0 L7 b: W
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10! {$ b9 L6 W/ i Y5 [
( S$ h; I- f% v" L) F+ L
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4152 q' x- v: Z& s+ [( E' y- ? A
7 L) R3 \+ S# k
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
7 a# _. f- D4 y7 I6 X9 r- J* a5 I/ b9 v
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4154 `8 K0 _& |6 S% o
4 M3 R( y3 h1 f+ x$ G/ c+ R) \4 n1 k: c由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
; `7 X, P4 B F* Z9 I$ S; y1 I; ?
8 h7 J/ L) j$ f. L通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
6 s( @& T) C# Q1 A
% q% i5 U$ i9 \& B+ \那么我们可以得出
; g T7 V* H, g8 |1 }9 K! p# E$ w
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.1894346623 I3 r9 P4 j: J* z
- p2 A; r1 O8 i% |9 H8 n
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 " ?. y' Z3 _& A1 P/ z) d
4 }8 t+ K6 P: u8 L
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491( J5 o0 f+ @$ B' ?+ O1 i9 U2 D2 |
9 O; {. v/ h- C* q$ n( r( @7 ^所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
9 w6 e K0 ~2 x7 a
4 E4 F- K, y" a! c% Y百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
; {" t1 w0 N' A; v8 J |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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