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小分3种情况:( m5 o$ w9 T$ n# O u# X3 g' m
" L# {$ v* f0 \* h4 M" [" p
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。1 [3 D1 j; @8 b7 @
$ M P/ D, o f2 k+ i4 b
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
, [6 }- | g0 f( ?% F
/ n# t1 G% @9 `$ G* N2 F6 a3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。1 N. P# r1 n, N+ z! J1 M6 a5 `% P
5 l$ ^7 W; f- X: |$ h( ]2 g1 f2张牌8或9点的情况有:! o! y/ C2 n! G w
( t! d/ C' c) R1 F" T. @
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10' i& G( D' S% V+ w% e( i) v
( m4 b$ S- M# _3 z7 _1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
+ L2 d/ a1 l$ B) T3 ~1 s6 ]" T" |" q0 R0 ]) P9 h+ y: V, t
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
! A2 @$ i6 T6 {' [7 s9 M
2 l$ y: b# P( M* v; q6 V5 r8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415" R& v6 P. I) e" m8 O
+ w; F, S' M5 M( `5 S由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。& ^4 {" d9 M: i4 @# ?/ b" z
% }& n( |4 K5 j7 I
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
; _$ }- ?+ X4 y/ b4 f1 A2 ^
- n/ u* T' r- r那么我们可以得出7 G7 r7 f& ]6 V& _
: `8 ^6 }* ?5 b
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662* F; `+ p4 R5 U8 ?- h; w: t& ~
& ~3 b% u( A- l, d. ]
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 ; t) v4 i2 l' m6 I0 _. x+ [6 Q8 |
5 G1 z5 _! x7 X( [) G- c/ B. x+ T
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491" U+ f4 B( M+ ~ h: L* Q( R
0 q j8 P1 K% I2 U: `所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
l/ h& t" T5 B0 h5 Q: n# q) s: v7 e* i
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677& |# e8 Z& c, D5 ~9 I- w0 J
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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