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小分3种情况:, e" X6 Z1 t; ?; L5 q0 T% G
+ F% F3 Z- G) v( W& I3 C
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。1 R1 z/ y( r& W, s. v
8 `4 j& c3 p) K) k2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
( G- N9 A/ P) e# f2 C9 `( |8 v! o% P' L' U
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
7 k' V# l# ^5 N. z9 e8 Q I3 } R6 b+ Q n6 K2 c) [
2张牌8或9点的情况有:) }% K+ v' T+ H# D+ ~
o+ H9 `$ [6 v! U/ F1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+106 c' C8 v( n! u( a9 e
7 M8 H' w: i A: q9 C! V1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
0 E7 w+ Y9 ?: I$ j) b- a. b. i
6 @6 s; s) J9 J# `3 ~4 r5 ^4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415" L& ~# f9 t& }" u o
, `; o: k; g; |: n, e% \+ _( i8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
. w1 K/ q1 y# }9 @$ h$ d! C4 ]! B) z+ O. m% Q7 ~; Y* F& m; g' A6 i
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
/ v& a( z) H( m+ q: N9 D& W! X# {; B9 o+ E9 t1 \5 H. W+ t( ?5 ]
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。2 q1 S$ D. `; b$ ]4 e
) R& l) F! f: s3 ^ R& a7 k那么我们可以得出& a; ?& @) }1 `( z
" c( B% a- t6 }4 m# C9 s1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662) _* V! K# J6 o' ~, H' }
" y0 M/ K6 Z# ]8 c% F( U2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
1 L5 a6 ~! Q4 Y% S5 R
1 X2 w+ r5 i" T o! p$ _3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491 F( G5 w" `/ O
( n) U$ S% }; ~- s2 T+ d所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
; _2 B9 y! O& R8 t. ~6 c" d
+ x- @; c, }0 H9 v3 l" C百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.6211306777 q4 R) @# A- m& Q4 K4 T) d; k
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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