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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 & l& ^ q4 b, k& Q# @; _: M+ m
余勋也不例外、 + O X- u% `( P0 D! i
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 * w% A2 g/ N# t2 z# \; ^) z: E8 G) g
是保经济的重要决策！
/ I+ Y9 g$ [. R/ e. s9 A2 u这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
3 u7 \8 Y, e4 V& N" L; D1 Z$ M低点26700-32400、 : J" P x1 q& ~( \3 U/ q
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 0 Z3 i: K* [2 ]; `# p* S
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 7 G" {4 H% P# U7 B/ N
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
- v& ]7 }+ O1 Z涨幅就已回撤过半！
# D7 E$ G: n |- d) q3 _ E所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
6 E/ k. }+ z7 H6 x. ]不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
' ~$ O/ X; m* |0 ]其次、
! g d* ?% ]4 x l/ Q# D缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
! v/ m3 E+ z- Y o+ T每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
# Z @; [5 V0 w" }9 r7 r等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
( x- f! V- c# e8 @美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 $ J4 s' c: H2 }: k+ a6 y
但回到币圈、
, U m8 _! u( z! Y去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 , l& k( Q( r) M
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
' v$ n V z, X$ H, C1 u, L/ S; |* Q而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
' ]7 \" I/ {+ i3 h6 {个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
* ~( a7 c D2 c6 `: ^1 O8 ^5 N缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 , ?7 U2 T, v0 k' \, T0 g, \% W
对当前的底部、影响有限。 ' {+ ~% `3 |7 |
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
' I. H3 ]! X/ B所以27000、即是
0 G0 j. e' H$ K去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
9 o% E1 R" l9 o( s7 m% `同时还是去年放水初期低点、
7 T7 P! c" X; x- y. ?9 l" Q也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 + O h9 ?: s/ U3 O
由此得出的结论是、
( f) Z1 @# l- y0 n; `加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 * h; p% K& K* z! Q, ]6 c# {# y- i
点位不会出现太大偏离。
% h: g, ^) O( K; [综合以上、
8 n( U g) {! g$ Z9 p% W @美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 " P& ]! Z) M' P/ ~! J
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
+ b" n2 @/ i0 r1 D那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 1 o3 P" z% O( x+ E( ?& O. M8 Q
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 - l8 c* R8 a8 M2 k* O
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
9 _- e" Y# F1 L& w) _9 Q* }2 B即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 8 d9 ~3 k2 h5 q5 {* u. \1 F5 S
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 ' A. [9 X1 f7 V9 C' q
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 ! S7 @/ w& N* u3 i+ i- e
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 5 H# m( @7 e0 c# d
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 4 l5 y* V# u ?' M
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
. [9 h' x, [2 p* h) ?6 v/ @* @反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
/ Y7 w& ?, Q* Q* g2 L' k& x* Z0 {1 ]( I( [* L得不偿失。 $ b6 E# v& L& j: U) t2 d, T$ u0 G( \- r
来源：金色财经 |
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