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[lastpost] => 2809436 迈克尔·塞勒称，即使账面亏损50亿美元，该策略仍将“永远”买入比特币。（转） 1772124583 垂钓园
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
+ D" P: t) \3 r( y余勋也不例外、 5 x' O5 [- z& S8 O" x$ m& a- z
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
& g( u+ h K# F; b是保经济的重要决策！
; C8 [3 |( h: j( z9 B2 \, S这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 $ F: I" i( o0 G
低点26700-32400、 8 N/ K; J3 J" I
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
`. m% j$ w3 h0 H* K+ x) D但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 , |0 D) b. ?" V; s4 U! G
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
$ P2 N2 G4 N8 H! n涨幅就已回撤过半！ 3 I& h4 K$ s7 W
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
0 ?% S6 X4 w1 @/ O4 S! Q不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
/ ~% V3 ?9 B. C) `* _0 m其次、 ! d9 z x3 {6 s$ m8 z, G! x
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 Q) F8 W/ x8 p5 G' ]
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
4 ]0 ^% V( e6 c x等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
3 }5 }% U5 | f# L- J, l, q i. J美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 ) i6 O. u! I D5 S' S6 i! _' j2 C& C
但回到币圈、 7 a$ [: s3 @/ M5 p' D4 Y
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
0 l- H( Y; A8 Q# ^5 l在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 3 R5 Q" T$ D. k
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 # ~9 V7 J8 b. Z
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 $ [, }, E( |/ e0 s: v* ~( z& L; z
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 q5 k. @9 |8 o, b3 {/ O% ~
对当前的底部、影响有限。 % c2 U9 U5 K& D1 r
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
; l3 K# o' t1 F! }& G所以27000、即是
8 l6 ~" {, r/ h, w4 y, Q去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
" G+ b c o& S; G* Q同时还是去年放水初期低点、 % ~% s/ P4 l) f- \. }- f+ G
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 ' k7 N+ U* K6 t* j
由此得出的结论是、
) u# u% \! z1 V. y7 w4 O& o/ T加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
F$ ~1 {+ ]7 c) J点位不会出现太大偏离。
3 I9 a6 E) S6 I+ s. A: `0 O综合以上、 / I0 I3 x! C e. B; W
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
" Z) j x$ W, g1 A L6 |* _- q在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 7 p& z2 i1 D% S5 e
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
* t! F( i k1 H& j% l$ q7 i抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 ) L/ ~5 L; k+ z- b4 U" q8 M' y
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 9 B6 W* z+ C8 m9 H3 a
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 6 l1 e4 W" X; Y7 U, L
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
) E, `. \) N& O5 P$ J6 m$ t夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 0 ?5 n6 K$ o+ x% e" S$ K( K
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 7 d. ~7 p7 h4 J( H
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
+ R" R- K! u: Q+ G7 p高空需至31700-32000间布局、
2 ?) u( D1 k% w8 s. H) U9 @- w0 j反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
9 o% D8 Q/ {& A5 n: H* V) K2 y5 {得不偿失。
$ c& y( X8 U$ k5 s: L来源：金色财经 |
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