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小分3种情况:
. g: Y6 ` ^5 F2 G) Y- f4 x3 b7 F0 j3 ]0 S8 Q# ~2 @( w- Z: T1 v
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。! J L" g/ f) a: ]8 a- ]" v d' Q& W
* j7 g% d# Y' O1 c0 { x2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。' A7 i& z) ]& L1 m) e' x4 Q
$ b3 I9 H7 R L; y- Q
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
' V1 I, E$ l/ f* k
, _ I( {% b0 X5 a$ b2张牌8或9点的情况有:
) _8 d# }7 u. V2 K6 P1 t+ E& i9 u* M& X! u1 g6 t) @# u
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10% }8 j" q1 _* F% `
! \* C( k. x( t3 ~2 I8 q, u
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415; t+ [6 t/ p; a- i6 I6 J
0 W; O; I. s. ~1 }
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415% w9 m1 |( F) n* F9 q9 [ Z7 c
' S$ x8 z# o$ n5 h/ l s7 p
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
. T6 w- m8 F# A: Q( \: { N. Z$ _
; h2 D/ @9 `, Y4 l! T7 ^由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。; {0 e6 F9 f# I& J
) [8 S ~2 T' ~; t5 A3 a) k8 R
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。9 c3 ~* w) ?. z4 `) t
j, M9 P1 y d那么我们可以得出
+ W8 m" G) ~! @; X# V+ \0 k4 Y7 @% }* N( n+ [! M. T
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662! k+ N" t5 m# s( _0 d
% J: s" f+ ]$ L9 U7 R) f2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 + k4 W$ O# z3 d. E+ J% F7 T+ A2 A" \5 F
, u! o$ y1 z- g. m3 ^; D$ M! d7 p3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
; p/ D6 |- n# b' x7 A9 v/ `0 V. r' R2 f) C) f! F3 J+ W1 F8 o: l( W8 p8 o, @
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
( M' b* d7 i# h& H9 r$ }0 [8 V3 Z$ O2 `# Z( W& I
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677- c( t0 @+ y, Z6 r5 g/ o9 N
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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