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[虚拟币交流]
比特币现货ETF流量及其最新脱钩——是时候小心了吗?(转)
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比特币现货ETF似乎正在失去其在整个市场的影响力3 `- |' L: N8 m7 O- p, P
比特币可能在本周下半年出现短期下跌
" V/ m, v3 p$ e& ?6 }1 s周三,比特币在注意到自1月8日以来持续的资金外流后,首次录得正的现货ETF流量。然而,最新的ETF流量也揭示了一些关于其影响的其他有趣发现。) v! w; S. h2 g6 z, M+ X- X
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比特币的价格走势在很大程度上,这与现货ETF的流动是同步的。然而,最近情况并非如此。例如,BTC从本周早些时候的最低点上涨了12.81%,周三触及当地高点100175美元。与此同时,比特币现货ETF在周三之前的一周内只出现了负流量。- R; T, ~7 m n) B5 H
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简而言之,尽管现货ETF资金外流,比特币本周仍成功实现了反弹。这突显了一种脱钩,这种脱钩也可能在本周剩余时间内持续。3 Y$ t7 }3 o4 N; D( _, [0 h
; E @1 y8 {7 O* a9 I5 c4 t. q3 v: Q然而,1月15日,比特币现货ETF流量记录了价值7.551亿美元的流入。这是本月迄今为止记录的第三高日流量。
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值得指出的是,尽管有这些发现,但在过去的24小时里,BTC确实略有下跌,图表上的跌幅略高于1.5%。+ ~3 X8 @! [8 v. r) _$ @
1 T/ k: ]% C y0 v0 e7 m, y7 H- g: C比特币在活动疲软的情况下保持对短期楔形模式的关注
Z3 R3 C4 ~0 a& c* r* {7 r; z在撰写本文时,比特币的交易价格为99236美元。此外,图表上出现更多下行似乎是一种真正的可能性。
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潜在下行的原因是比特币的最新价格上涨重新测试了下行阻力线。它还显示出过去24小时的一些抛售压力,这表明阻力位仍然强劲。
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% P* A* E: I- S" C) ~( g4 U3 k0 {此外,链上数据显示,BTC在现货市场一直出现资金外流。事实上,仅在过去24小时内,加密货币就有1.5601亿美元的现货流出。
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现货资金外流的激增表明,投资者仍专注于短期获利回吐。这可能会提供对当前需求状况的见解——这表明短期情绪并不乐观。
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鲸鱼活动也与短期情绪一致。例如,最新的大持有者流量数据显示,周三有1420个BTC流入,而同期有494个BTC流出。鲸鱼的需求更高,因此影响了看涨表现。" X# U' |, b$ U8 f/ T
4 m, l+ l/ Q! y4 z2 B9 D- u0 c虽然鲸鱼的需求明显高于外流,但也值得注意的是,整体需求疲软。尤其是与12月的需求激增相比。) q* d- u: E; R
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鲸鱼的低参与率充分说明了市场的信心水平。这可能表明比特币仍然局限于短期走势,在这种情况下,价格可能会从阻力位回落。然而,投资者应该注意可能影响市场的重大发展。
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