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[lastpost] => 2806924 彭博社:协助土耳其冻结10亿美元资产,Tether正重塑合规边界(转) 1771174677 caoch
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势% u3 D* T ]' `7 {( l- Z
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。: @/ e7 Y( e4 K4 i. ?1 V- s1 c
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。/ ^+ T+ c9 O! S& A) z) c' N* E4 g
& ^! B- u; Z. }1 [ P3 g6 a* L. O2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期+ s; O9 b$ H& K2 J7 B; U2 c
' ~3 {5 ?5 ]( B# {$ m1 I! X当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;2 q4 Q5 q' e5 S6 _
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。% m: ]9 [3 u/ B4 E4 J1 y; c
4 E% B/ Q$ u; C" K比特币价值回归:
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。, W/ R! o N/ e8 h
( W: ?5 @' H% K# Y随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。* ^/ F/ o6 }8 Y1 d7 O; t
6 b4 l1 [; N; g0 z% @# b# R" O加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。+ _# b9 A% h, `; ^# X8 M8 x
% U: \1 ^: I+ g% @) ~3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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! z z5 y a8 VETH:
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, A2 L% U2 f- w/ K: U虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。9 a, c5 E0 @! }% m+ g5 K
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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BTC:
% k+ b- O7 E! a# W; M" y0 P9 O8 D% c0 e! \, _* l, @ \+ S
尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。: _+ i* I$ r8 x1 A* Z
9 M5 e+ y, {6 i! x# p8 W如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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% j& S u* ?% \# ^* H& GSOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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. I; W# d- h: ?; }7 `" ?XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。3 Y: }0 l# c* `% T# ]: {
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其他热点项目:
* J- B& d }5 ^; n' y* c
$ L5 Y( u( {1 B( v5 Q& e9 W" e" v! z涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。, x) c( s+ U* A5 I! g
, G! L. Y- s) R# A( Y* M山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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1 w2 j/ O2 C: @1 g' V$ ? j4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。* {* |7 x( N/ }! g! T7 P
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。+ ^" q/ _7 w" g6 n, _
+ ?2 ^/ J" _' q a* |) y, H
新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望
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9 h3 n3 c' f9 T, |- K随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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