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[lastpost] => 2757728 比特币矿机要上太空了?无限太阳能+自带冷气的“挖矿天堂” 1755708155 天策-瑶娥
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势" E! h; v6 i2 O6 O
; S7 W7 Y% w+ a, y6 T过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。# Y* u/ h4 m# N6 t
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。: v% q- ] W5 p+ ~3 ^; X
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期4 S4 @5 G0 X- k
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当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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! ?" \. T3 [) l4 ]/ b; }微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;( g: m1 u6 t% ?6 M# p4 O4 }, n5 T; H
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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2 p2 ^/ w' Q" y/ ?5 r比特币价值回归:* q, W+ Y6 y I7 V( w8 U7 o$ i
' p& x# t7 }# b3 G7 L/ ~' m市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。# e4 P9 B4 }$ ~: N; d) e7 }
# S( O; f1 O& [7 }4 S. ^: t随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。) e. H+ f$ \- e( ^
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。4 Q" A8 N. M# a3 q Z6 Z" K. o
; M1 a) V" N* e$ i+ U% T) n, Y5 t3. 市场热点与反弹情况( E) y- @" j4 }; c+ O" k
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+ m ]; [; n* B: T3 A) G虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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$ ^- ]: c- m! c# p6 q# \1 l; a. z机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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BTC:
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。: z, M3 F0 p: P9 v. Y# G& |1 w
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。0 a1 b5 X' l5 P9 M; r: k
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SOL与XRP:
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7 ]: R1 n( @ d# ^# d5 ]SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。* x% M y5 B' _; e
% `) \" S' [$ Q& |XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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r8 m9 [5 j8 T% ^1 h! N) t其他热点项目:
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: c5 h$ v; V) K( ^ O/ N/ ~涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目/ z# l! n- T) j5 t
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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! \: {& R# Z# G4 W) a( k蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。1 a# F4 K7 X2 _. Z
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。$ v& D- ^" Z2 _( Z g3 h& N
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市场展望
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: [" ]) ~" h/ g1 n7 H9 L: o6 R" d" q随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。* H( d/ K; E8 ]9 A0 Z
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