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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 * G1 o+ C: {0 `% {
余勋也不例外、 4 J: J) b$ k6 }3 t: u1 ^$ i
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
3 H. M9 E P: j0 g1 D d是保经济的重要决策！ 6 Z0 X$ G! v/ z" n' k; K
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
* M2 C; ?0 x% L1 _低点26700-32400、
- o* n' j0 W/ P( F! p4 R: s反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 ; F+ }6 j2 @, i& G
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 + S3 `+ \$ s* h
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 & r) w! X9 U* @! R8 Q/ m
涨幅就已回撤过半！ * B" [- P: O* l9 C2 v% k
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 % |% O% n2 ?# S
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 $ l3 o( C. Y f( Q7 m
其次、
# H; ?/ }. u2 B9 f# y( g缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
! d) h1 P/ v+ t# g* R) D* b每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
5 }3 L$ t! R# N& n* Y: [' @4 n等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
+ i; t. j4 A2 `美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
9 ?# U4 P) Q& ~1 w( k但回到币圈、 6 m( ]5 e' ^ B! e( q( {( D
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 F+ P1 a" u! I# U5 C! W
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
9 {0 T7 w8 S' Z) w0 [7 \( B# b而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
$ g- B, b& u+ w7 I" z7 x' p, G. w2 R5 {个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 9 h* r9 `! \1 c& m- t7 Q. z: T
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
* @ V. m8 R* g对当前的底部、影响有限。 ; x, N u6 I3 R/ f9 f7 K# S( W+ M( d
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 0 q. u% T i0 H' E& g$ T, T! T
所以27000、即是 8 z/ @) \. v7 A& r
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） / W" y/ c ~, w/ [8 `
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
* {! c& D6 D0 R2 f1 `也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
+ Z: t1 H+ l2 P% r" _由此得出的结论是、 9 x% e* ?0 N! S! e
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
( s" m8 M9 m' p6 B点位不会出现太大偏离。
+ x, d0 a2 C' h综合以上、 k; H/ s, v0 H* H/ [% e
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
6 r3 U( `4 ^; C* z在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
$ q, e5 p- t: q& `) s. ~那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
" l, o- B; @4 Q0 x, m抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
: x3 `) Y+ G" |1 [) S" @) A那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 " N5 R. ?: x% G2 e5 K7 X
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 $ G9 T7 q8 N) r. D8 k8 @( A
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 ) }% k; E- @5 U
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 . ]1 P2 ?3 Q) P3 W
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 4 e' S: I( h% P* ~& i& k& e9 P
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
# g6 r T) \, o高空需至31700-32000间布局、
% A# Q4 b( N, F9 W" s" {" A- ?反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
. [. \' C+ }* ]4 o: Q: a- l得不偿失。 % D! G; Q5 y) Z9 ~
来源：金色财经 |
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