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' t. s6 F6 s3 P o$ ?' j2 [3 h! G加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为# V; R* f0 d' M! r' z5 s: P# w
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
0 V) b. b0 H, H. p. n衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
7 |' C( m' x) o& T9 {- B/ H9 c4 C一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
; |* \3 ? K0 nBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。" \6 R9 A. U6 W" c
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
' t: v$ e+ w: J% A: E+ `2024年4月第四次减半# ~ v$ r0 s% K7 l
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF9 |; u1 J+ `' h. @ |1 l1 Q$ x
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
" u# F+ v( G# M/ z8 ?( z3 ]针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。* l6 z7 A" G, x$ n$ z+ _7 E) `6 h7 h
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务3 L `& B" b- `: i2 w* Y
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。0 X+ _4 `1 V4 E+ S6 F) p4 e
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠& F5 Z6 T! u( ~
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
3 g+ \+ y S/ M0 \0 o, M5 L# r三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁8 a4 j$ U7 Y4 a( Y! b0 ~" d
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
- |' n4 f1 [1 I; ^# O* c; U& b$ L3 x金融(TradFi)产品。5 q) Z' L+ V1 \" v; P/ }% A+ q4 Y
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨9 ]9 Q0 w7 h6 H0 z( |' k( \' Y
链桥」的项目。
! b7 C8 F# C' f7 t四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉% d6 e4 M2 [ b2 ^
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
( Y( @* S& B; o" h8 c等。
- k& E7 x( a" W& O& H5 `Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用) E2 [: ?' Q, W4 s! [
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
7 E6 N: D# h. l五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
9 B3 O6 p1 e& {Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位. c4 u: z) M# Y1 x* D/ G0 }
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
) H& D3 i" z3 `, z' X, \Pantera点名了几个项目：
, ^. @6 b9 |) k. e6 b. z6 KHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
0 {' \1 S# A ^8 k) E$ r1 eBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台: G4 O2 C; m/ N0 T) }- I c
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
2 u& I0 Z8 ?- g7 w3 M/ qThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划$ s6 Z& ]! ~8 f" f% j
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游) U! V! O! [$ ^5 d- G5 ^! a7 e
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
& E: w! I a$ i4 i0 i9 wPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
' ]$ i+ e0 _1 p7 F# N: X- a至能直接与L2竞争。
7 G* q; J0 h* w2 ^$ ^3 m$ D5 T5 N& f也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
7 L s0 ~2 X7 j$ K) C' }6 p1 FPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
, ^0 L3 A6 s! U0 u9 W& t成为「应用链」。
; {( D6 m$ W0 i事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。2 r; N$ X! w5 w; i
3 E3 s2 i* m- x) P& {% M1 ~# e" v |
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