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5 p% a& Z$ m( H) C) q2 c
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为; b! y% y. |" T0 X. w: B z
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
, F( Q1 @1 q3 B& a9 ^6 G# P衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。' U5 }& i1 N3 ]% D) v, u! l) S- u
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
5 `% O0 G3 ^" z( [, {BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
( h, r2 D; S6 N7 \+ `: |Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：6 a% v4 u# C3 K3 ^2 E! s
2024年4月第四次减半
5 S9 G0 o7 s$ G1 Y0 C5 Y机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
, D8 |5 w) w% n可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)- H/ l0 z0 N# r3 x0 A
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。9 ?9 ]. p7 V6 q! i6 @9 C: U: v/ H
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
0 T3 ^) K5 @" V, Rfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
( m, K* K3 l3 F# n! t( dPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠3 L+ H' \( q, g K2 v0 r
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。) T6 l" u1 {3 Z
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
9 t9 d5 G' e, W# n) ] B除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统1 S; ?( U V8 [2 }' m
金融(TradFi)产品。0 [) {2 Z8 i+ ?$ q4 i- F
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
, c$ p# H! H: z5 t) i" \链桥」的项目。9 w; a' v8 u/ F( z
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
! c: Q5 d7 ]# e6 U4 \- M9 R. t, D模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
( E9 x0 n( @% `' |" N) S0 v5 [等。
5 y3 d) B) K* q' l: F7 }# CPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
- X/ Q" u$ W( z3 X! n' S3 e! C在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
% @5 q+ ~/ B' i$ U5 _6 G0 t' z' F五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN# ~3 x& p- L- i4 p" V
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位$ g# s1 Q, w& U/ Z+ U
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
; S% B. X7 b1 J3 e% {Pantera点名了几个项目：
9 n9 c/ [6 s$ E8 f, J! X; XHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
8 x+ T* N. x8 q! n& ^: g; wBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台5 S2 L0 t) z' @( M4 d
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品9 C. T7 V3 H5 C4 u! i' l
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划0 |. }. z9 B7 e, E
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
# ]0 y# s2 w [4 l4 W六、小型公链需专注特定应用; t k/ M) }) \# R v- Z
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚3 t' h% f; R9 a5 c
至能直接与L2竞争。2 v+ u4 M7 W- X. u% r
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。% \/ K! \" ]9 x1 m
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地6 `6 K0 q% d: x
成为「应用链」。
! ^4 _( J l" u6 N8 Y1 j0 h( ? g5 `1 ^- B事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。- C+ Z& ^& [6 `
# k% B5 o7 s9 U |
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