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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
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* W9 F4 G) p2 z: @+ U1 S 平手中水,主队有利2 ~* [4 p. R% R+ X
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
1 x9 d5 p8 f) s 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:' n* B: V7 {' J! \2 o5 G; x, k
英超主队
6 V \' g7 L" r; _' i$ ^: `, `# [ 胜:13场 48%' a) A3 M% \ _' { o( p
平:5场 17%0 K- m! a2 U- x
负:9场 35%
2 u' n- b2 r; ?" ]. V 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。: z, c& Y5 L% v8 E0 [" y
) e. f. x8 b y- H; O
一、初盘阶段( f0 q/ y% |* h! p9 G
具体到水位如下:9 x! r. g9 n- Q6 M P' o2 K4 ~
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
; u3 Y7 D% W3 V 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
4 ^! T* A1 K2 T9 d0 i9 ` 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负+ B4 Y+ s9 {2 w: v: K
) k3 s1 I0 [( o5 R 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
( S c5 Q$ K9 F$ X S 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
* o& V ^. r: }# L 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。8 g2 c# n# F: z6 ~4 H! k. `
2 l3 \* Q$ A- K8 ?! Q
二、临场阶段$ T |/ T4 j6 x! |( I7 e3 K8 O* ~
, b% d) t2 m3 i' _
具体到变盘和水位如下:
- m$ h7 t5 y% ^ 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
9 f) @. @. J1 P, @" N& m 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负2 c7 r g! E! |3 H/ M m
4 j, w {1 Z6 {/ u) E6 v& j 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。5 R3 E4 T U6 \: A
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
9 [$ E9 M0 T0 W) E# [
1 ^! x ]# @% O& e7 J% r# G1 m 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
0 _8 v( T! E( [9 O' Q; J 初盘:0.82平手1.04
' Q* G8 S) `: P/ ^; y) Y 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
- j+ o: j) x& U7 V! ~0 l : p3 q, L u' n( ~
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆% Z; u5 G% r# g4 N
初盘:0.76平手1.10% \; C* s# c+ Q6 W0 ~7 P4 s2 ~0 h
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
- Y; k1 I* f7 g- D4 d% T
' H9 k% W. P" z; ?7 v& L- ^ 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
d7 j) b' F4 I) H8 _ 初盘:0.82平手1.04
0 C4 l5 q' a3 d: o) _; e 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98 k+ \/ X2 ]! P* g+ g# b
1 `- N" m8 F2 ], t/ [, O
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
x' {$ ~: M8 Z) I- k 初盘:0.88平手0.982 K5 ]# J w0 e6 ?1 r' [4 v
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
" p* r- a$ ?* s2 u u4 i8 c 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
, e; K/ j2 a- j5 Z, C* K 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
- S: [% T, x' A% ? 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
- {+ h0 ]& c6 w5 n' \8 e
# A- T! a: @6 ]) t0 S: ~9 c- { 三、球队表现
9 ]' t2 A" \3 @9 U" X5 U# s4 ?0 f
5 f& R+ F6 V; J( i! d2 }& d 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
$ G9 a5 |& J% q2 h2 K/ ?( S, A ; @% k5 ]6 F3 M3 v# @- k1 ~; R
四、投注要点! N6 l8 l8 q5 r; R" {0 @8 C" ]
要点1:平手中水、主多不败. V( [) s4 W9 X# n$ E3 P* m7 n, V' S, _: Y
要点2:平手降盘、走两头# A6 n% x% n" D T, M# J4 g
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败) U. x( m" O& H8 p5 k$ E9 J& O
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
% ^" z6 S0 b2 [( T. q# t9 q' g* T 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任 ]' ?. E1 l4 A$ f
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大, F0 y- Q! W$ Z+ |! G3 L3 R
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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