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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘7 F% ~! K3 G0 F2 k/ Z% t9 t
     ! G; H. E( O, u5 R/ i) s+ B
     平手中水,主队有利
! t- C' L6 Q: X7 _8 p     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
/ l8 E0 \# y/ r/ D' X8 I     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
2 h% F/ v- ]) m     英超主队
* t. L/ b/ b) K$ O. P4 k* _/ t     胜:13场 48%* L  ~* z+ ^" V) p# k
     平:5场 17%
! z+ l' j7 ~* L2 I; X" E+ |     负:9场 35%
8 C" B! r# N& ]8 c5 T     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
, Z4 Q8 L: j+ R     
9 }% {* }4 t& L$ A( d     一、初盘阶段! v) I2 I1 T3 ~& a' I
     具体到水位如下:9 [* q8 l, h$ }7 _$ s2 G) ?! X; o
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
$ B: Z% u3 q. {. @     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负$ A; _# I# l+ y3 O4 p
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
/ O4 {9 b- u7 Q     2 x- q0 Z8 u% C  N- o) s  e3 e
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。  E! f, X/ {; Z5 V
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
$ M1 o7 Y. A4 w" m7 U* f+ }     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。" H  [/ g, |  U9 C% B6 f
     
  J; O& N& |2 e# M% w( W     二、临场阶段
4 [' B/ A6 i) T; R) t     3 D; w- m1 O' j  k( A/ U4 h, l$ l
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
2 c: i) ?  J9 k& Q% }     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负# Y" ?3 m# j2 s8 N$ s7 T
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负. E9 Z- B. Z! U3 p! Z
     
  ?2 v' n/ S; }     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
4 ?$ X: q/ r0 ^3 E5 ~# t     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
1 f# O; T8 X+ K$ i/ u3 W     
% r" z, K1 o7 A' Y  s. [     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿8 D2 ^+ O* U6 |" L& J/ R
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
; Y8 @1 _7 Z0 `3 K3 I     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
6 U# w; b+ H: g9 O# V  F# Z  _     
, Z% e3 M7 n2 n4 H* K6 M9 g     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆4 e  r5 Q& P% o9 Y3 W" Q
     初盘:0.76平手1.10' A: d' Z) ?/ [: j: G( D
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
2 ]7 X( Y, G* _5 W; W     
. ?7 H% p: x3 r; u     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技) k/ [# P! ]% d; N5 |( Y
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
; p" Q0 [" Q, |: f/ g0 @7 S, I     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
6 F  v% H+ u6 x/ I     
# I9 c5 y/ g! M. n     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
1 h: A/ }; V1 R3 o' C     初盘:0.88平手0.989 t- [$ `& i* B8 G8 P
     终盘:1.12平/半0.749 W3 ^& e4 _5 I0 S( a+ d( _
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。; A! i. g5 z) W% ?2 [- O; \2 T; y4 j
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。3 X1 T& r7 t" s
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。0 l2 D1 {$ V" I: N  C( T" H
     3 d/ H3 Q. v3 C
     三、球队表现
+ u" M8 u' ]8 `, O# B  X: R7 K: v  h     8 q1 C3 c- y' A) t3 \+ x" ~6 M
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
/ D/ @* z3 H2 F8 O. B     
$ Q6 P. d4 p/ q3 U9 Q' B     四、投注要点% n- q3 L" R9 W
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
5 K! a! Z/ y4 g     要点2:平手降盘、走两头: v2 l5 y' Z* ^1 k0 L( Q, |! X/ f7 d
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
9 p) E* b* x) B! L, M1 L+ a1 ]     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大! g$ P1 H: O  l# g, b5 d
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
* e8 }2 c  v& B4 S! b$ B     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大. P$ ?- y. w# S
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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