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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。; q5 T+ u! f( V) L* }  \8 O

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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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. G1 v9 I  q4 Z, Q以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)8 L* B& Z5 ~& h" p8 Y

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2 l7 J" r7 u! I以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?4 X; E! v+ w% _+ x/ P5 m" E
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盈利可能性
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- C8 L3 W0 i8 \( I1 H7 S对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。9 P" h: f3 V6 Q" y/ G

, d: @5 Q, A0 H8 b2 O增值  d- V1 ~5 v$ L* N
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?: h7 R5 \) s1 @: h, Q
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 ; B. e, ?2 u$ [  B0 n' O$ _. x

9 z6 j) l6 H# s; U2 H7 H/ d7 e4 W正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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8 I) ]1 r" y- d5 j5 k. h40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
" [% z  X. O  h% w6 x" S60%的机会你会一无所有
7 B& H4 T# X7 W1 w& B/ e, @: Y预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
" P+ y2 H/ H' O4 @5 @由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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8 R) U1 l: d3 S1 d增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注/ m6 y5 L" P8 U- D
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。4 {$ N3 r  k/ Z" j$ i+ P8 m0 m

7 n- t, H! V$ }! V; N7 p: f公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
9 u+ c/ b* x3 rP=获胜机会7 ?5 A; o. r  s% Q2 b9 j
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)- W7 W$ [! w1 t) e

) {) E6 I' [! @1 i& ~/ g4 x首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。6 T% H( Y$ n$ g: W' `9 T9 T  X
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。$ d+ W4 @# ~  q6 u' r1 ^+ P
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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) c- N; s7 o* b6 A4 XA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)- R3 X+ _0 l& h8 h

6 a1 G% i& {% ^5 a/ F9 U  QA=0
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, v" _2 B- `9 t$ M7 j; ?. s" Z结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢' E2 C. J; h1 C- w& U) P
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)* V) h. @3 T2 S& }6 Y3 [$ q
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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' U+ B- k& m) hA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)/ `/ Q( p1 L- [! z/ I

' b1 ~7 K" u4 A7 ~A= -0.2 0 v8 T9 m+ i5 j7 A, A) P% n
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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( n: E! h; v; s第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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