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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 # Q1 O$ @. E, J- _5 ?/ ]1 ?. D
余勋也不例外、
/ \: e9 P8 I) ~ j: P( ~其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 / ?' O' O) I# d( V0 E5 C. I
是保经济的重要决策！ . U# {7 l+ V {$ S; S8 N# J8 h+ Q
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 % u5 b" ]: U& D( T& B x
低点26700-32400、 % P* F4 h2 P6 a. a, M$ L$ V
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
+ R& y: j, B* B2 B, J" P L但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 1 x7 q$ f* D( Z- p. i
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
' U4 z& h, Y! k% T* y5 {( t涨幅就已回撤过半！ 8 G6 W/ p- p/ l! K/ F1 i( v
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 ! k* I" m& O& u
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
_& k& p, `2 V! W其次、
* ]6 \) D0 _1 m* n" W- Q2 P缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
. v/ ~% F* f4 ^% J" s每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
. G2 n7 k+ g7 e0 p, u- O5 {2 k' W等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 5 J. P6 y& ]3 |- X; C# c5 V* o
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
* W# P. j x& Z# O2 ]' ?但回到币圈、 ( \* n- B W, ` Z: \5 F Z
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 7 { O; s+ e8 a/ y& f. N: F
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
7 f; Q. s( ^. b+ J1 o8 o1 W6 c( C而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
$ X, s* C% h G) y* j$ |个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
. [* R! P: B8 U; \( K0 B+ T缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 $ o" T; n8 }: W* @7 }
对当前的底部、影响有限。
# g ~$ ]* G9 r/ X) L. W0 u! K: u最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
: I& g0 T+ Y+ @; A p6 @所以27000、即是
, `' R6 n- O/ q9 O) s去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
) F1 O7 T @) ~% f4 M$ S同时还是去年放水初期低点、
/ q: |. X* J& V& A; K( D也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 - L. H& @2 M* q L6 v
由此得出的结论是、
2 |( @7 d9 N3 a& E- r6 O: _加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
; t/ Q: G# ~/ v6 |' [! f) l点位不会出现太大偏离。
/ a( J9 s! ?8 ~8 x9 j, @9 ?综合以上、 ~% i4 R/ I& O; [0 k; ]% q# P% E" ?
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 % Q6 y7 O$ Q/ I% D# f
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
0 }0 _, E6 C9 q* R) }0 O# f那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
4 m$ r% T0 ^& _" G3 ?抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 . Y+ S% Q4 Q) x8 `- g
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 # ]' S0 e t# [) F0 k- I8 ?
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 " [1 `8 [2 d& Y8 `! |4 g" B. {
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 ' s$ a0 d/ E' D U% `' U$ j
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 6 c" l2 b6 \, z
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
$ U% B7 m0 {. e/ u/ m6 \0 Y逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
. Y6 F I+ x" U& f1 H高空需至31700-32000间布局、
$ l+ A6 [; }7 f3 @% [6 s5 ~反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 , }3 d) u$ P1 J
得不偿失。 3 a0 p2 e; u7 l& E9 K- K; F9 \
来源：金色财经 |
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