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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
; @3 {* `8 F2 K余勋也不例外、 / x. }+ b' C# @. \9 {/ E1 {1 m) J% U
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
$ |* n _/ w$ }" Z a是保经济的重要决策！ 9 w* Z; U2 C" \. z5 I: `" x
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
8 k: Y, k3 f" L, N: X低点26700-32400、
3 e' v3 M. q5 ^( ~9 X- K m反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 $ H1 N, |7 K' B% f# D/ O9 J
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
2 x- q8 F( a2 k, f: J$ O大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 : }* a. ?9 |! k# ~; E
涨幅就已回撤过半！
3 x" @+ ~$ N5 \4 R0 M2 b% _7 `所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 % ~, n6 j2 j# D3 A5 y
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 / K& x! k7 S0 Q1 f& A
其次、 + P5 Q8 ~" ^& d& g& `; j% L5 i s
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
) \; ^7 b4 ^+ E; }7 K6 j每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
9 ]/ A& c, s& J% u- B. A. x1 v等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
7 {8 y+ N3 d/ l9 z( X: J美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 f8 v6 @' S3 P1 B
但回到币圈、
( v t$ N5 w+ N5 o* | S! o去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 1 L) x8 l! a: `+ _: [
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 * M) p- s/ k |1 c
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 / Q3 }4 G- f; T& K1 S, G6 }( X
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 : |- G l1 ?8 S+ t% u6 n% ~3 Q
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
) r& J1 h! @% K) s+ p; L' E对当前的底部、影响有限。
- a2 J L. [1 C$ b6 X最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 * W% e5 A3 |3 s8 y; {
所以27000、即是 : `- b; ]/ o* Z
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
& n8 ]1 ~$ o, y% d同时还是去年放水初期低点、
" R) c4 b% [; X1 K3 r也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
% C- U# |; }$ {2 g4 w# N由此得出的结论是、 9 z+ c8 h$ L" h+ `; Y( H) r
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
. Z6 v! P' Z& }, q7 X9 T- G7 b点位不会出现太大偏离。 5 j. F) n9 o; n- B2 c
综合以上、
9 C: o6 ]- w7 d- b* R4 e# E7 ^2 \美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 ) l3 Z: [ o! S; b* a6 M! \
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
4 p% N, @/ Y0 @, ]% A8 `那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
! I7 p; P- \4 b6 M. f% A c抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 5 d4 X3 }6 T0 O$ G
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 7 }! [# A+ w) X L# j* g# j
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
. B5 i; X9 `2 ]. @- }美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 ( P! W0 T5 D& T4 w/ C: h3 [
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
/ X, A1 c' w! x# q/ R7 j a大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
3 d8 }$ o* z& `% h" `' M3 a q逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
. ]! V, b" S6 A7 i/ {* ?5 k4 D; s5 E高空需至31700-32000间布局、
% ^. w$ b" q" `; E1 n' s. }反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
* b; |" w. s2 `% {- ^' A得不偿失。
% Z$ ^) o) j6 h! h+ h$ D+ U& P7 G来源：金色财经 |
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