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8 p! V5 N# o/ z- F7 s9 q! A
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为$ @; c! Y5 Q+ y' ?6 x$ w
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，# b8 W) [) n# t1 K1 a
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。& b: j- }1 a' t' z. Z! S
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
( T9 }# u7 A8 n( \7 r0 nBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
, `% P! W6 J0 k* }; r0 t R9 rPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
( F# @4 {$ ^7 ~% m! `2024年4月第四次减半
+ V1 @+ x# C+ q: C. ]0 U机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF& @6 c, u! ]! C7 n/ x: z
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock); t8 n; O, O# G! Z* u, F6 F3 F
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
) `' I' m. Z/ \二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务: B$ r6 q4 t/ }- ]
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
: D! x! m, z. V1 V0 K- u/ G- ZPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
; e, o! Y9 {- E% p* o, {诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
: y7 g4 i6 c' O+ P0 q' s- e三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
0 E/ D6 z+ K$ q$ X除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
3 F9 a, C8 R2 h! p金融(TradFi)产品。7 Q# D( [( U1 k4 T9 E* B' l
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
5 H! |* `8 K4 ^% k链桥」的项目。9 t) f- ~6 f1 r! s' O) p* M
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉% J/ A" O2 @! d+ U: z) o
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作1 [; t9 g0 z2 W5 y' Y2 z, K* j& d" J
等。
) ]$ b) m) F2 ?) c4 N3 j7 v0 xPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用4 u+ C4 [# Q! g# R6 |; f
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。6 }% F/ c& `5 @/ E9 y% ~
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN; t' j' S0 H: G4 D
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
4 @5 b( r: b2 j" |5 O% ?数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。5 L7 t5 ~6 h& h1 d5 S" G2 q5 O
Pantera点名了几个项目：& H3 ^; J7 ?8 v
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图, G- T! X; y _/ ?. ]1 N& @; f I, i# V
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
% ]/ f) e( o& P; r+ k* GModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品# p4 L1 b. T% z1 M6 l6 X
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划! _- W7 G; J! P+ U+ _5 @5 u
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
( ]$ A! |4 C: j4 K8 S, K2 a六、小型公链需专注特定应用
. K! ^ V" N# V- t9 Q& _Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚0 s( | T% O, _. r
至能直接与L2竞争。
* r2 M2 y. d3 i# A2 I. `也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。6 C8 F: G Z. R u( R$ A
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地+ f( a6 H( s: {; ?7 w& x$ H+ i
成为「应用链」。- q$ v0 p! }0 H7 @' g S+ R
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。2 X. X$ x7 e n$ s0 @
3 A4 [! [3 X+ B) H# ~: V |
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