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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘" @$ S  C0 d& U8 u7 f9 {
     ) a- f1 m* M, q% }8 J4 {6 t1 s
     平手中水,主队有利1 R6 h9 f8 S) O4 E- A! k. c
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
: ?4 J- o* d6 M. g  O2 X6 K/ }/ O7 `     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:4 s8 K: X6 L4 i% I$ }: B
     英超主队- D' ]1 k, b! E! g: S; ~4 O$ I( y
     胜:13场 48%' q! @- i& s- ~# D, [
     平:5场 17%6 `3 T! K  J  M% k6 U
     负:9场 35%
6 C2 m2 G, D6 V) j     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。4 r! k( U! x, R
     
8 [  M/ m4 P7 ^2 @! t     一、初盘阶段1 h, i# x1 V3 n. e' |% _. K1 I% H
     具体到水位如下:
3 r' m1 W+ r& }! {: Z7 t4 y     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
6 D6 M( G$ F! F" n     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
/ u8 i9 h$ |( l. {& u     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负, y9 G. i9 B+ w* C# W
     ' ]$ B8 @" D! {& s8 o4 L
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。' D8 n; L! M. r! U" l
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。1 X" f2 q+ u/ }5 e" C
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。  D8 ?  ?5 Q$ J* u" S
     
: R% B" `5 K" I0 V& U7 n  m9 H, [     二、临场阶段
' \* {' R! b/ _     . Z8 `: m2 x! k  {4 d
     具体到变盘和水位如下:4 B/ ]- ^, R7 a3 s" ~$ r
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
0 ~% V4 ~5 J5 Q* p5 w% Z7 y     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
+ w4 l. l, A, p: I2 g     ! e- ~! K! D; F6 \; x2 F+ A
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
" V6 I* G* a2 `1 \+ E- n     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
1 r) E- v# \; j9 r     7 A1 F2 U, F  J
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
6 v* {$ c( L& u. q. R     初盘:0.82平手1.041 Z. P6 C  Z5 B8 m& }7 q* A
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.853 q1 `1 A+ }# ]$ F. A! t! D
     
* a0 p% c! B* n2 K     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆0 p. ~' L' d: W) l2 s
     初盘:0.76平手1.10: c( ?% ^( ]( Y$ q6 W7 f
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.915 \; H! }$ a1 W* U' \- L
     
  o8 s9 z: r4 o# u! ?2 o     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技: q$ n/ Z* b  @. T: {' j9 r7 u
     初盘:0.82平手1.047 G9 u, P0 R; h4 u: L" V1 l8 x
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
+ I  }3 n( S: z7 R     
! i/ H1 A# H+ l* Z* ~     伯恩利2-1西汉姆$ k" k2 {: }5 I8 A
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
1 h& {) e. @- q     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
8 N4 \" w0 l" K: |2 V+ L     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。5 {; d3 T4 n- V3 y# W0 f2 N
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。: x2 d8 C# l  l, \
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
7 O$ y8 O4 ~- C! v     
: I/ [& z! h# H, @0 B     三、球队表现( Q: {# }% I9 w. R
     : ?2 @0 L0 n6 l  S# s% U6 I
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。/ d' s* F! J0 a: O
     & U- v( _0 s& O
     四、投注要点9 L8 J4 _2 f* u
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
# m, i( n* `7 {% I% c, L! p     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
) z1 A  |2 j( `0 K' S+ M2 l     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败% \5 R0 |3 _1 w" @1 l% A
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大4 \4 p0 m' n/ r  ?) N$ v# [
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任% {: s* u/ A  N
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大/ o9 l1 S, F# _: Q
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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