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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘- H4 Z0 z  x+ G; U# ~8 e& _: k  W& v
     4 x' v9 i; S! i# x
     平手中水,主队有利
: ]0 b" a, ?% S9 \     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。  @% |8 F) O) i. ?9 E% u- T
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
2 ]0 {* v+ T* V/ c7 g: E     英超主队
/ n, k; L6 a$ q2 S  u2 M$ s6 ?, p     胜:13场 48%) C' N* K0 l& b
     平:5场 17%4 @- P) P) \3 r( h- D& N
     负:9场 35%& H. k4 V0 Y' b7 [. o: i
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
: a, {- x5 c2 L- {     ! F) j$ t; p# b6 q+ q" x
     一、初盘阶段  |& Q  _- l4 ~  x
     具体到水位如下:) F, N$ a% e1 F# |+ R6 A
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
  }& O% c/ ?* t) w$ O' D# Y- C6 k     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
8 E1 J; V/ O7 L9 k  N     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负; J7 E. y/ ?4 y. @; B" o& B4 i8 X
     ! @* Y9 i) t2 e$ [% l: d
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
) c0 s# z* E8 i3 l     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。0 A+ h* B- s+ `5 K
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
2 W  r& Q2 j8 [     $ N7 _; m. ?; U1 u0 G" l
     二、临场阶段- z# r5 n: Z+ }& G
     ( E) Y* {4 ?9 T/ Y5 A2 ?
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
  @+ G' I1 _" M     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
! r- x& [5 N4 l4 U0 s3 O     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
" C# G1 v0 T* O9 s     6 u& a6 K5 `! y! k
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
- I% l! k9 S; e/ w     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:/ I* g2 v  N" U6 H
       }$ g& t/ x, G8 X9 m
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿. b1 Q. N! \" P1 I# j! i) ]
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
( v/ c; @3 {- Y5 b* H' A     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85+ G0 U& h. b7 F* k- j2 m
     
8 r9 ~. {' T4 _  I. V     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
  @% W. D% G' J/ e     初盘:0.76平手1.10
9 J  N/ u% }) c+ o  |* e! R     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
3 O+ |  m% C; |# I9 I, L     
3 H+ X, Z* I( V8 c( c2 F% b1 H' Q     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
8 `" m. O! q5 \& Z     初盘:0.82平手1.04
) N: o0 W: Z  s5 Q# _     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
# ~/ e6 |1 }% g/ Q+ R; e     4 [, B. G* H% \- c- I8 I
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
4 n/ M1 s+ U0 Y     初盘:0.88平手0.98
8 v; ^  q4 M# G4 p     终盘:1.12平/半0.74' C' Y' p8 j( g! ?) I7 L7 g
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。% {- j# [( c! X* z# P$ D
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
4 n9 c9 f+ O% F, |& ?! N* J     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。( C4 T% x, j. t9 o4 L+ K
     + i9 q4 q' p; u! w9 X: v
     三、球队表现
6 N- ^/ i7 g+ u& P5 v- C, f     ( V* C* w& q3 E9 I2 F
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
* v2 r" ?1 x* C* ^5 ?     . A9 u( d/ e1 H8 A0 E1 e6 N
     四、投注要点
. b  ^9 u3 y' Z' R     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
# }& A( B( Z  o, K5 `' r; K     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
  L8 E" H1 t" L6 t     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
; I# D  d3 F1 ?     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
0 n) s% r$ A& D5 M/ c# Y, d     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任2 B1 H6 k5 Z+ D5 }7 _( ~0 ?
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大; ^9 h7 i5 n7 X; U* o/ N" X  E
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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