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[lastpost] => 2648964 【星宝】5月10日投注流水110518元（单日流水) 1715436317 rainwang
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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法：凯利注码法（凯利缆）（转载）
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有许多会算优势的博友问我，如何控制震荡？要准备多少资金？要下多大的注？要多久能回报？0 @7 \ a: t0 Y0 k8 C) ] k
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会问我这些问题，表示功力不到家！只会算EV确不会管理资金，只知其然却不知其所以然。
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, N6 |" _' x, ?其实优势玩家的资金管理，不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学！！！
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首先，我问一个很简单的问题，有什么注码法，能让你就算一直输，也永远不会破产？
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请思考1分钟，再来看下面的答案。
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答案就是用比例下注，就永远不会破产！& P: c2 R, U7 H% W
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例如：我每次都下我总资金的10%，如果输了，我就下剩下的90%的10%，那么不管我输多少次，我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%，永远都还会剩下钱。
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8 _, i: n L8 s% }现在的问题就是，到底要下总资本的百分之几最好？
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* n: R+ U J& v7 ~% g我们先来看一个0和的游戏。6 b' \6 W2 ?( o( L3 B! l6 A, p- \
~" p) T+ Q. s9 `" F. A" S6 p' ]玩2手，输一次赢一次，我用10%下注，不管先输（剩下90%，再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%）再赢（90%+9%），还是先赢（剩下110%，再下110%的10%=11%）再输（110%-11%）,都是剩下99%，公式是（1+10%）*（1-10%）=99% 损失了1%的本金！
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玩200手，输100次赢100次，用10%下注，（1+10%）^100 * (1-10%）^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金！玩越多手，输的越多。* d& c% m- H. H3 t% B: s4 k) u
5 w' s% _# D+ N" e- O+ @这个实验说明，使用永远不会破产的注码，虽然永远也输不完，但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏，也会一直越输越多。
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接下来，大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏，赢的会比输的多，+1%的游戏，就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思，那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打，会不会赚钱呢？% n# w r, u! {! I- v# d
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玩200手，输99次赢101次，用10%下注，（1+10%）^101 * (1-10%）^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点，但是依然不会赢。+ z$ c6 i& R) K# D
8 ]6 Z9 T! O( n" W: F再来看看如果下5%，（1+5%）^101 * (1-5%）^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。; k, j- [1 l* K; ?
: R& V3 }+ }2 M ?0 z4 _如果下1%呢？（1+1%）^101 * (1-1%）^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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) M3 I: j3 l; D; ^: u7 B1 {但是这真的是最好的吗？我帮大家节省时间，我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果，用表格的形式拉出来。" I8 e' |; {1 D. s6 z) K0 N# u5 ~
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下注比例 本金结果
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0.1% 1.001902
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0.2% 1.003606
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; T, } A# q! z! f- i5 r* X0.3% 1.005113: M1 ?2 R+ y* J; J
% {* K8 p9 f& `3 y; P7 U! h0.4% 1.006421
k- a5 y: ^- J0 u- f2 r2 h# r9 V# @ g6 n0 P' `1 g3 |, H+ H
0.5% 1.007528
$ ?8 M3 s! G% Y5 b6 C9 \# ~) H) U) O5 J9 v) L8 B o
0.6% 1.008435
* F ]1 a1 ^& D, F; k
; N& X% y$ S4 |0.7% 1.009142
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- n! c6 \9 o4 {$ c; Y' q, M0.8% 1.009646
6 f8 m& R0 g6 | O1 n# V, ~7 O/ p2 v; y
0.9% 1.009949" H: |8 Y) y- W7 T; A. |8 {! F5 b
9 q9 M/ l: z& H! N4 e% j
1.0% 1.01005
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8 P0 J% c0 [8 Z" |1.1% 1.009949
$ H2 i% X2 ^! _1 @9 U% b8 V F) K
6 _& H% F8 F% y$ N1.2% 1.0096463 b% ]0 |' M/ o( {
" t- D. v; w$ j- ]1.3% 1.009142
$ v. l. T3 t2 T% v1 z* x* `4 x B2 X$ L/ d8 u
1.4% 1.008435
8 v9 u4 a9 |. Y/ M0 a0 s: R
5 Q/ X! \3 [' s6 D I) Q8 s" v1.5% 1.0075282 B: ^9 ?! A5 Q- `
8 y' _9 Y7 a* q
1.6% 1.00642
3 L, |/ M; z+ O. n0 }
! f" V% J, h+ Q/ c- w1.7% 1.005112
+ r. O# p; z& f; ]4 j, l% D' K7 ^
1.8% 1.003605
# _4 D: j) @$ h' ]) E
6 P4 }2 L; c+ V, U) G: P, _5 J1.9% 1.00198 t" `& \: |) M/ r. q
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2.0% 0.999997) V9 C9 T; S( X, C- }) k/ o/ S0 k4 r
0 b, E' v s& M# P+ A! d2.1% 0.997899
% }% z0 v$ ^7 m7 w- i; M; P: f# P; U
2.2% 0.9956054 b# L! w/ D1 W, H8 X
, u5 y! G: b- s2.3% 0.993118$ ^7 l E8 T, M' Y" q0 S
% x9 c& y1 H. A2 x' U4 n0 B2.4% 0.990439
/ R! T. M% T6 o% W4 d
e* [' m3 \% m6 [2.5% 0.987569
; L g* h5 v% ? T# o4 o' d0 |& W4 O3 ~$ K. X1 v; ?" t
2.6% 0.98451
0 L/ |! V% E2 n- S: d; }: F/ J4 {5 L$ ^& b' ~- j+ F, w) {6 `
2.7% 0.981264
% F& Y) w2 Y7 c' k/ ^% i
. X" ~* i1 D7 `, i" L2.8% 0.977833& M+ g& K! j. \" i% D
* q, L4 |& ^: s# j# W/ v+ x9 J& o
2.9% 0.974219
! Y; }- l% o. X; M) k8 v4 d2 E7 z2 P3 j' M( T: @9 W& K, w. C
3.0% 0.970424
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从上表可以得到一些结论：
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说，下注在0%以上2%以下，才会有获利
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( g) u" s3 h0 w+ f' e2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说，注码在1%的时候，得到的获利是最高的，下的越小赚的越少，下的越大也赚的越少！; q) v- ]% P/ ?. C
1 d `) {2 X5 P4 _3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金，严格按照比例下注，过多过少只要不够准确，都会降低收益，名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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凯利这个人，其实只是按照这个原理去推演，发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...* |% ^2 w+ p* v, V7 t
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件，其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同，其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的，但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表，那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。- K& U8 a9 e2 _
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以上，希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。. b# I' W: e' ^) J* N _! J
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