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[虚拟币交流]
比特币可能在未来两天内开始反弹至15万美元：分析（转）
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分析师Ali Martinez认为，比特币可能会在未来两天内开始反弹至15万美元，然后出现大幅回调。7 C% `! b8 K! h3 K
' G) D. d; o7 @0 [7 n: w: @' j比特币与前几周的剧烈波动不同，过去几天一直处于持有模式，没有出现重大价格变动。
' w7 H) }% R( h
/ a; n) i' z6 |$ I) d l% `; \自11月13日比特币达到93500美元的峰值以来，它一直在努力走高。虽然它经历了温和的调整，跌至86682美元，但此后反弹至92600美元。& o# c. q$ l% t: B; K& P
5 P, f2 Z% d& [( V; m2 N2 Q# ]在过去的六天里，比特币在8.9万美元至9.1万美元之间波动，价格没有重大变化。在这个被动市场中，参与者既谨慎又兴奋，预计会出现大幅下跌或大幅上涨。
( ]3 R# t) F( J' e" [- c. F" m7 H$ `0 @* T; Q/ x9 q! |5 A
与此同时，像Ali Martinez这样的分析师正在研究历史趋势，以预测比特币的下一个可能走势。
! ?2 O# V- r7 ^, L6 C: K3 i
2 l d V2 ]5 C历史表明，比特币在大幅调整前可能达到13.8万美元4 F6 H% F6 i% c2 U/ ?4 s J/ N: I
在A更新今天早些时候，Martinez指出，在2016/2017牛市期间，比特币价格飙升了156%，超过了首次大幅调整前的历史最高点，首次大幅调整使其价值蒸发了39% ；
) _2 |0 S8 X9 Z. M+ x, I2 T: m( C- s: a. T: w
同样，他指出，在2020/2021年的周期中，比特币的价值增长了121%，然后经历了32%的回调，抹去了其中的一些涨幅。基于这些观察，他认为比特币在面临首次大幅回调之前可能会达到至少13.8万美元 ；
# R/ _2 H8 H% ?, h: J+ b. p9 T, b. b4 D0 C
比特币牛市可能在两天内爆发，目标价为15万美元
" t% h m5 C! @ Y3 }与此同时，在后续帖子中，马丁内斯强调比特币正在密切镜像前两个牛市周期的模式。: F7 s d" `! b0 C( F
& Y, T+ N) G" b! F他之前曾指出，在比特币上个季度夺回19700美元的峰值后，它飙升了26%，然后巩固了一周。整合之后，价格大幅上涨至40000美元。
" X; v* R9 C% ~4 o; w! K; |
$ }; X- @( \ [( w值得注意的是，在目前的情况下，比特币已经比3月份的峰值73750美元飙升了26.7%，并且自达到93500美元的新峰值以来，在过去的六天里一直在巩固。/ D' U0 w, S0 t
3 Q# e& ~- r* z+ y8 b. M& b8 y e因此，马丁内斯相信如果历史可以作为参考的话，市场可能会在未来一两天内再次突破，目标价约为15万美元。0 `/ y' R) D8 b. P* _4 I" k, @
: ^- K# j- {* Z% ^9 m* y( y
牛市后调整期间的潜在价格目标
4 e- N, h( j7 O, k* W* U7 g& z值得注意的是，15万美元的目标与比特币的历史趋势相一致，在经历约30%的大幅调整之前，比特币在超过以往的历史高点后通常会上涨100%或更多 ；
& Y2 A* m) b7 a4 X$ n
" {; {4 d, v" ^. K/ n9 D如果这种情况发生，如果比特币首次声称15万美元目标如果峰值接近13.8万美元，则达到9.6万美元。' M; @* O0 A: L. _) U0 N/ ^3 f
- i" N# B+ ~5 Y/ V与此同时，Martinez强调了8.3万至8.5万美元和7.2万至7.5万美元的价格区间，作为市场从看涨转为看跌的潜在支撑区域。/ s) x" @9 x! m- L& [4 [9 H# j# R6 r
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