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[虚拟币交流]
比特币可能在未来两天内开始反弹至15万美元：分析（转）
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分析师Ali Martinez认为，比特币可能会在未来两天内开始反弹至15万美元，然后出现大幅回调。
% A' U" D% y% `( u8 N' A# q8 c! L" e3 ^3 e; ?8 @
比特币与前几周的剧烈波动不同，过去几天一直处于持有模式，没有出现重大价格变动。
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( T6 K- _9 ^0 b) d自11月13日比特币达到93500美元的峰值以来，它一直在努力走高。虽然它经历了温和的调整，跌至86682美元，但此后反弹至92600美元。7 \* j( ^7 k9 C6 ^. q8 m
1 c3 p7 r2 N7 ?+ w' [在过去的六天里，比特币在8.9万美元至9.1万美元之间波动，价格没有重大变化。在这个被动市场中，参与者既谨慎又兴奋，预计会出现大幅下跌或大幅上涨。# {% k0 O# Z( Z5 }7 b& [
) w* N9 c4 p! ?( D( \& ~与此同时，像Ali Martinez这样的分析师正在研究历史趋势，以预测比特币的下一个可能走势。
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. p7 F3 B6 P) o$ l历史表明，比特币在大幅调整前可能达到13.8万美元1 J/ r) |/ s) Z4 o
在A更新今天早些时候，Martinez指出，在2016/2017牛市期间，比特币价格飙升了156%，超过了首次大幅调整前的历史最高点，首次大幅调整使其价值蒸发了39% ；; |$ j% j& ~" m6 a' F0 L; I
: `7 W Y% `* h: a6 b; Q! A同样，他指出，在2020/2021年的周期中，比特币的价值增长了121%，然后经历了32%的回调，抹去了其中的一些涨幅。基于这些观察，他认为比特币在面临首次大幅回调之前可能会达到至少13.8万美元 ；+ M! Z2 \" X3 U d* O, \) m# h
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比特币牛市可能在两天内爆发，目标价为15万美元0 W" h4 x8 F" A! ?2 B1 w: f6 o
与此同时，在后续帖子中，马丁内斯强调比特币正在密切镜像前两个牛市周期的模式。
% y- X3 c9 ?" s b+ V* t8 Z6 ]
5 k1 G: B7 L. {他之前曾指出，在比特币上个季度夺回19700美元的峰值后，它飙升了26%，然后巩固了一周。整合之后，价格大幅上涨至40000美元。. N. _& R$ L, A) I2 r2 _
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值得注意的是，在目前的情况下，比特币已经比3月份的峰值73750美元飙升了26.7%，并且自达到93500美元的新峰值以来，在过去的六天里一直在巩固。8 K$ q- N" ^8 Z8 O1 S! K
$ z- N& C1 [- Z5 K因此，马丁内斯相信如果历史可以作为参考的话，市场可能会在未来一两天内再次突破，目标价约为15万美元。
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牛市后调整期间的潜在价格目标
" t) k8 w- K8 _% m5 e值得注意的是，15万美元的目标与比特币的历史趋势相一致，在经历约30%的大幅调整之前，比特币在超过以往的历史高点后通常会上涨100%或更多 ；$ V, }& u9 u/ h
. W/ S, l$ z. Z# X, m如果这种情况发生，如果比特币首次声称15万美元目标如果峰值接近13.8万美元，则达到9.6万美元。
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0 {+ b9 r3 q# i7 c0 v与此同时，Martinez强调了8.3万至8.5万美元和7.2万至7.5万美元的价格区间，作为市场从看涨转为看跌的潜在支撑区域。
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