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[虚拟币交流]
比特币现货ETF流量及其最新脱钩——是时候小心了吗？（转）
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比特币现货ETF似乎正在失去其在整个市场的影响力
# x' L: m5 _( l9 p J比特币可能在本周下半年出现短期下跌
9 u& C9 {* d4 s+ y) @! W周三，比特币在注意到自1月8日以来持续的资金外流后，首次录得正的现货ETF流量。然而，最新的ETF流量也揭示了一些关于其影响的其他有趣发现。
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比特币的价格走势在很大程度上，这与现货ETF的流动是同步的。然而，最近情况并非如此。例如，BTC从本周早些时候的最低点上涨了12.81%，周三触及当地高点100175美元。与此同时，比特币现货ETF在周三之前的一周内只出现了负流量。
( \( e: {. E. D& b5 H. x& l3 E3 d2 _- l" |. v( O5 z; H/ q
简而言之，尽管现货ETF资金外流，比特币本周仍成功实现了反弹。这突显了一种脱钩，这种脱钩也可能在本周剩余时间内持续。3 `3 {7 P9 `" h3 |8 x
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然而，1月15日，比特币现货ETF流量记录了价值7.551亿美元的流入。这是本月迄今为止记录的第三高日流量。4 b& L' L* e7 J1 C+ U
0 S! O# N- d5 V9 k值得指出的是，尽管有这些发现，但在过去的24小时里，BTC确实略有下跌，图表上的跌幅略高于1.5%。# H5 @. ^: h+ ~/ U7 _1 Q
* [ T. I$ M" ?2 I! p比特币在活动疲软的情况下保持对短期楔形模式的关注
' m" W5 q3 D8 {: H在撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格为99236美元。此外，图表上出现更多下行似乎是一种真正的可能性。) {/ N" U' |$ p
3 a# |. t2 A4 K$ U+ q9 }% R潜在下行的原因是比特币的最新价格上涨重新测试了下行阻力线。它还显示出过去24小时的一些抛售压力，这表明阻力位仍然强劲。: @' R7 ]! s: }# |
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此外，链上数据显示，BTC在现货市场一直出现资金外流。事实上，仅在过去24小时内，加密货币就有1.5601亿美元的现货流出。
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3 N; M0 @. r+ m1 K( x; j: D+ i. E现货资金外流的激增表明，投资者仍专注于短期获利回吐。这可能会提供对当前需求状况的见解——这表明短期情绪并不乐观。: f! `( h/ I3 O$ L9 h
4 X5 I' p1 l; N w鲸鱼活动也与短期情绪一致。例如，最新的大持有者流量数据显示，周三有1420个BTC流入，而同期有494个BTC流出。鲸鱼的需求更高，因此影响了看涨表现。
2 b3 L: B9 i5 Z% ~4 V1 b
. ]9 B+ \. j- \) a6 u7 z虽然鲸鱼的需求明显高于外流，但也值得注意的是，整体需求疲软。尤其是与12月的需求激增相比。
! w! c3 S& a* D, ]$ }8 O0 j _' u+ f4 T/ l+ l; |! ] |- ^- [$ \
鲸鱼的低参与率充分说明了市场的信心水平。这可能表明比特币仍然局限于短期走势，在这种情况下，价格可能会从阻力位回落。然而，投资者应该注意可能影响市场的重大发展。7 g( T1 G1 p4 {
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