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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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, [3 o& h: S+ D$ c) J 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。" ^" M9 I$ K' E6 x7 L, I# Y2 |
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。+ }6 {$ S% b' e! {$ i2 M, ]
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5 K: _9 [: P e 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续) Z: M1 s' ]* o6 a
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。* r9 Z: L- f+ Y
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。 r$ O: X1 F( r( Q: F& r; T
2 y- [" I |; t) w1 ?( b+ e “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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1 B. A, K4 c, q框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。( m% v7 O! y) v( h4 ~9 U
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在* L F% h: t$ H7 t) l
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”: d7 y3 u( h3 q( y
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4 l4 u$ Y4 u3 w, L 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。! c9 i1 b1 Z# o: J0 ^+ T( D5 I( T
! w& [0 B; c. K: W) Z 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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$ ?* t# ~) _0 g+ ^8 F 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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# R3 u# h. W; y2 d+ g ~" P5 s 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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. `. k6 `$ e" F/ E) ~* w! N: B 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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5 h, R, K3 L/ |市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”+ j, K4 A2 D* ]* t K* B# T9 F6 X
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