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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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: e3 S* `1 U. Y/ k 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。$ l1 s0 i- m& X$ ? C
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续" R6 ]# C" `8 q: N$ ?3 [4 T9 z: _
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。& |% s, P) M6 p7 h- V+ c1 S
" t' o% b/ a( g+ z7 N; w 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。9 Z2 O7 O2 [3 M$ I5 C( ~3 T
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。( d/ [0 g+ o: C6 ^% p
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，, Y5 e) ]* z/ p& q+ U5 p5 O8 b
& T, A( x( M; i! m9 @- L6 n价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。. J% x3 W, o7 v
7 \6 s. u" ~" j" k “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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3 T% Q# ]6 W& o4 K/ l& `9 a9 L$ d* @框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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- @* n$ A! V" Y# _1 D “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在9 q9 D: D( E3 J2 p% M. J7 ~
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”& J1 B8 O, ^+ M8 Q
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M! J0 {$ }5 y9 ?' ~1 M 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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4 E) E( m2 L" d: D3 I: E1 g* o 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，8 Q5 H/ [1 q* ~. y- M8 l
# | B( q6 y) g8 f' e, H市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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