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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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6 n5 I4 K: ~, |" G" s8 p西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率) |9 M+ K# o1 b* L% R4 ^& O/ t3 ~
$ V6 A# s; a }5 f/ I& W( k* Y
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:$ L( D) I. @( I: ?5 b: B0 @7 U: }
4 a- F# }. K A$ Y" g# v
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 2 P6 E" @! g D; [- E3 e. ]
# l( {- U2 x7 c3 T6 ~& t4 ` y
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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3 R" y( t( z" i9 v7 t: M答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)- J6 c9 r% D, j4 L" U7 b5 o! N
/ G3 W- u2 x1 y' M4 @5 {1 J, L6 n ], L9 V1 O# I
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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5 S8 q8 {6 B7 Z D& x/ A
盈利可能性
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0 w% U8 Z$ H% _5 {7 k- ]9 f% z对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。$ H2 l2 z7 r* W6 L/ r# x
, s7 z% a! ?( h8 @增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。0 R6 r% v3 g$ @4 u% k
$ Z+ G2 N+ C% g8 l* ^9 I
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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& c: q& \4 [0 Ba) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 7 Y8 ?& b. f- t! n. i
" X" Z2 ~% j3 N2 z正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
7 B) x. E6 C8 M5 A _4 V/ J% \4 t- r0 h2 E" B) B* b9 r) M$ Z3 Y
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
$ q2 [+ w0 z' N60%的机会你会一无所有
) }, G* P6 A& s3 O3 H预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
& G- n% ^8 w) z1 ]& h由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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' @" K& d3 q( }) N增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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* |% U( {, y, z6 w凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。4 H& _+ `8 @7 S+ P# D
* k: T0 _& b& O0 |, r公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)) ^( z& o' k' W9 P% p3 K3 d
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A=博彩资金! Y& Q" J' U+ T& a
P=获胜机会7 v' [: l/ y! V X2 k0 o
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)9 c$ a$ w/ o0 b T$ M. C
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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" b5 a0 I7 T6 ` z8 `好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。$ h) k3 [: A$ i
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
; ]' `& V/ Q e2 E. f. \# y
) v) q3 `3 j3 w! B" v4 vA=0
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+ ]' C! v" X$ G8 f结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢7 g9 W1 t1 F# T* S6 x5 C) B" J/ S
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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# w5 C% x) ?2 H" \( K& T. C* r: ~A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
" [" l0 o7 r+ s# e; ?6 f1 Y4 L6 l4 ]4 e7 {
A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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+ W2 G0 y. `3 U* G/ A" V1 n3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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" @8 ]2 K9 p) M8 ?, y/ qA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)' t. D& M5 A2 u; w5 m# }2 G
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A= -0.2 ) v/ d! y) Z7 e5 L6 D& q
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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