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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑* @/ O& P( x+ o
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
9 b7 s. h- J- q L8 c' X
% @' `1 z4 f' ~* ~G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
4 O' c5 n8 h$ Q4 Q3 C2 I4 ]什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
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z" g( r; ~- ~1 q0 t( b& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h, L. R; }2 Q5 X w
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
" O0 z& D: m, _) t7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s8 O' } O: K! U3 ^
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `8 F$ F$ M" }; R8 u& V0 R% {" n* l
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
) Z# K* k: l- R+ j5 \(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n- v: U+ ?3 }, K0 }3 Z% w6 o. s/ x/ x8 P
! e) s3 m- Q; ~
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
1 G4 m0 `: x y
- l! L. D9 b$ n9 j, \6 @) M! q(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
3 J* l3 i: y9 b2 e6 G7 P3 P v/ L3 @+ m, F5 p
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
: a9 k G, l7 o0 V. l; b) O- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _# M5 ~* ?" Y! y$ H. E% ]3 o
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
4 d3 I0 f, [9 _. A' D1 p) n: ]9 t' |5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c: d: e$ T; p4 ?! z' g% T+ R
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
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S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
7 {( k1 Y+ R8 y# o R5 A% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
! K( Z: c6 g5 E$ I6 rS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
2 C# p$ Z8 y0 ~2 l" \+ V6 ~9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
# q8 p9 c. H5 M: |/ DS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
; G( y, s3 r6 `8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v+ w; O/ c" }) p* O' q
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 8 U, p/ _- r. Z3 N5 a
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1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
4 X6 ^' V/ u1 b P! ~/ l7 q& t Q" M$ F. `% X+ |- `. M& i
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q3 |& k/ W$ l) m2 [2 {) t( k
, O, V; {- r$ n6 c2 w
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 $ x, c* a, v7 C* v. x/ t8 v
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
7 k8 l; G% y9 x* Y- t. c' ^3 Z4 jS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
( r3 n; A/ N! f7 ^8 K& G
9 e& `3 V3 A# |' b3 k( _4 X; o类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j3 K+ K* I* C9 R5 \# h
$ n/ V* m5 c! hS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
& D- `3 j5 e& P0 z" ?
- Y( [/ Z @ v7 _S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
9 O5 o4 D, l- s: p4 I; c; m' V% T, u, P% O
0 A) m2 m: r) Q2 ^+ V) h3 O* x: S8 |S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 $ f' O: ^( s6 h: K% j4 _% y
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a& y, U- R& T2 ]* b! {4 j
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 5 ]; l) h/ f( R% j6 W9 R3 U
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* U# h. d: b; l$ t9 a8 Y/ T(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o) ~$ V1 O( x) x8 [1 p2 c8 p: M
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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! L, n. W! N, W$ l" U% E! }B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 , y; ]3 u2 W6 A
J) F" W( p3 N2 C, k+ k' A
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
* A" S6 R, Z' `8 s- D2 Q# T) l7 X1 w7 Q, d: n
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?7 H$ {7 R5 s7 ?0 w+ F7 H% i
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {4 ~' l" H* q9 N5 k
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M% A) G& ^$ N$ |5 R r& T! ~6 R
+ D$ n) P# X# M; o5 ~' N" Z: k6 _8 J$ b0 h, [- v
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 " H( s/ z! `4 y
+ d1 H: \' U8 `' ~) u
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]) o7 u7 ^3 G$ i. ^" v% C2 U8 l
: }( S+ J8 z/ A$ Y当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
+ }- U9 K# c/ [' \8 I6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i1 [! Y- J9 U" ^5 n6 q0 c h5 h8 f
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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