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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 7 [/ V8 X6 u) ]3 q, ^+ Z" j
余勋也不例外、
: V' }9 g0 Y# x8 C其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 7 `+ r+ p2 j5 j# \
是保经济的重要决策！
, u% ?( I) s% a: M' |7 `这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 5 A6 F: _$ v7 x+ G5 z% B8 O$ O# S
低点26700-32400、
- p f% C7 B: i反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 : B8 l2 [1 G0 B' f# m a
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
& X' G3 \- K1 _) R4 {7 ]大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 1 F2 B+ q) K1 F, t# O6 {, N$ Z3 u2 C
涨幅就已回撤过半！ & E" x/ \+ M4 c2 N$ S
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
9 {: J; @8 n4 Z7 Z9 n l; h不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 - R9 c7 W! W% R- n! C. m! N3 p
其次、 ! W: _- r d, W- @2 ?7 n6 ]
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
& L" ^* O# ?# J' { E- _: i6 W每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
& y* }' F2 C4 L等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
/ V( S+ N, b& m, E. V# N" f( u美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 & z5 ^6 K/ ~2 D4 V4 Y0 J
但回到币圈、 , J: V3 J. y$ p: m8 {2 y( B
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
9 m# x) z, h, t: @( Y: ]5 ]在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 8 s* P E G1 G6 S- a
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 4 _) X6 j! o4 j& N9 v( j! L; k
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
& d+ @% K3 o. k; L1 t缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
$ U# [6 z d: w, D8 f: I# r对当前的底部、影响有限。 6 d9 G" ~& x, E
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 6 C- U$ u+ ?5 c0 P* x Y5 C5 e' I
所以27000、即是 9 U- N# ?# p$ H0 R
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
1 W- u' m0 C2 |; N同时还是去年放水初期低点、
+ K7 X6 j2 W$ Y5 f7 O6 X也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
, O. B: s2 X. e! p4 J" l X( v由此得出的结论是、
: X/ ^' s& r2 j* H) z加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 - B, v3 z$ d7 m+ u% m- W- l
点位不会出现太大偏离。 % n7 ~! ?/ N! t/ [- ]: ^
综合以上、
$ _6 a$ g; E5 C1 }2 g3 I美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 ' r& D2 g3 }$ B7 _ s
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
1 [" h% o' v4 \% @* a: d那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
9 F5 K: V& G& G/ [, ^' V5 ~' Z, H抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
8 B6 y# Y% p; v( r4 |6 t; C那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 + _/ f* U: J5 Q) v8 C- ~
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 3 N. S2 K. G$ p! J9 c1 X% T. `: a( C
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
8 U# @. j2 T' B* s' q5 Z* Y夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
( z# c8 ]9 W; C1 p/ _) r大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 , s9 _/ h5 O( p2 _
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
- g' S' {. r$ t2 _3 t, ^高空需至31700-32000间布局、 % a1 M5 ?& D! m8 \& I4 g' B
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
6 ?/ B5 [ c5 L3 n+ L6 b3 o得不偿失。
$ n- g0 o4 w3 K, a5 k$ _来源：金色财经 |
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