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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
3 F e6 ~$ M; {余勋也不例外、
+ j8 Q d+ b0 v: ]9 _$ `9 d; C+ x其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 ( x; s; {+ |5 h. `' Y$ a" Q
是保经济的重要决策！ + Y& b# B8 @8 d m) n
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 3 D/ Y; D2 ^( D( l' |2 k& `8 Q
低点26700-32400、
8 o! @( o) p: O+ e! u+ y反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 - Z" U$ B* K) T: N1 U- t
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
+ B% R; }# B" v大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
' N9 K7 t: X4 P) E& }: w涨幅就已回撤过半！
3 O" N3 J& f. T5 ~/ z& D所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
' \! i9 t% _ c) P) H不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 4 k) F% n8 Q+ G3 x& a% J! z% R
其次、 3 f- C* s2 f) I
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 8 a) a! `4 t# g" F8 T& q9 p" ]9 O+ b
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 ( B! U% E* l( P( Y' j
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 ) |7 g6 x* `% X/ [$ r7 |
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 2 V0 F5 [- s1 Y/ f+ }& H
但回到币圈、
9 l8 }8 M2 F# C6 h去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 0 w1 O$ q: \8 g1 b' L& s
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
- T g6 z# V$ G7 d' P7 k/ }" f而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
% t9 l6 ~( N5 h0 |个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 c+ q U7 H2 H7 H' h0 t0 M
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 4 p" u6 ]9 H) f
对当前的底部、影响有限。 ! y+ N i9 T' W( L) _! P( D. ^, P
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 / y% W" `8 H/ _7 V/ x
所以27000、即是
* _) y3 M8 `2 O% [" n; A! M/ E去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） % @ J9 Z0 l, m5 {; M& E3 F- Z; B: ^
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
0 ]+ t" C3 m5 y$ f, W/ D也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
" A$ ]- I7 r# r( ^由此得出的结论是、 + T X* x4 r2 ]8 i0 l5 C6 X% R( p% y" L
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 l0 c8 z& i( C! Y) V. w
点位不会出现太大偏离。 8 J$ r" x b8 Y' i5 _) x
综合以上、
0 |& Y; b( q# }美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
2 _) Y; [* D0 s5 e* O) u在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
2 w4 i. d7 u) n! I2 i$ D那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ! P; _" E+ N! h: j A7 Z6 }0 p
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 . @. B3 i1 \. E M+ M) @
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 + s" a/ z+ [/ C
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 ' J6 _, ~5 ]) l6 L* I# u1 L9 o
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
5 m. b# o. z* v6 i }% r. Z: c/ a夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 * F s/ J' W+ G/ j
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 - E3 W, J( U3 A( m- S, B/ Q; P. J
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
3 o4 ~: Z- u& _ Q高空需至31700-32000间布局、
1 L1 d0 s P7 l6 r' Y9 K1 L5 c% _反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 ) E& q' t; d! I2 ^! v3 s0 G! O
得不偿失。
/ w) n7 t/ L2 i7 B来源：金色财经 |
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