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[打法交流] 对百家乐玩家的忠告(转载)
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1#
闲只在0-5加牌,庄只在0-6加牌而且6只在闲加到6/7时加牌(庄0-2只要闲加牌一律加牌):
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* X8 {/ P" ^7 I0 Y+ e1、4+5=9,4+6=10=0,多4显然对闲有利。
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1 Z; A& O3 z% D2、各牌多寡(根据算牌得知)对庄胜闲赢或和之影响可以用电脑模拟计算。例如用8副牌若少一支4,开庄/闲/和输率会自原始状况(1.05791%/1.23508%/14.35963%)变化。若少4庄赢机率增加即证实我们根据加牌规则的逻辑分析。0 V/ O  @/ G; \# ]2 g' |
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电脑计算结果少某支牌庄闲胜负输率若如下:& Z6 c. [) l; p' O! n8 I

  d0 t. d3 s0 U) q4 X# [少一张 开闲机率自(1.23508%)( F+ L9 }* D* v0 ]$ A9 G
3 `/ B# F2 n: `9 R$ W# t9 t
升(降)%' P# _# Q) k0 C% n1 `6 s5 K

9 ^) h& M4 K# A* yA (0.0018)
, n3 u7 o' _( J5 m, W+ e5 u- o6 Z+ k# ~+ j! d. `2 ^9 c
2 (0.0045)
3 A, a9 W5 ^9 @( g/ ~3 a1 h* q  G! \* A8 S( z
3 (0.0054)) H. A% d9 K% y. x9 I
: K: a5 w; S8 |3 V/ i
4 (0.0120)% s1 `' m8 l5 i4 I
2 {- `) ~8 L( m
5 0.0084- a( q$ @; a! b- n
7 `6 W& f* X: T/ ~2 S7 z$ Y; [
6 0.0113
) J; ^2 k- d7 w. c- f4 n% q4 r2 i3 I; c& k% s* g2 C# `6 R# L
7 0.0082
5 Q8 D. ^0 R$ u: ^2 |. D% W2 P  A# C2 z  G! d
8 0.0053
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6 H- _4 |) _( p7 f6 O9 K9 0.0025$ g! P7 U4 p. ?: ^5 I' T2 z

- |9 {' ~" {3 F# Z, L例如打8副牌,少一张4,下闲的输率自-1.23508%增加0.012%至-1.24708%……即少4对闲不利。6 ?' P9 u5 f# L, f8 A* X- B4 |/ E! D# G
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由于每一组牌都可以用电脑计算出庄闲和机率,玩家只要等到剩牌分配对其有利时即可下注获利。玩家当然不太可能把电脑放在赌桌旁(在线博彩也有可能)每把算牌。21点专家把算牌简化成+1-1在脑中计算。百家乐算牌也可以简化……简化前我们先问一个基本问题:
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7 N. _1 d; v4 B! ^: w5 _8 s21点当退佣高时不算牌即可获利,若赌规好(可以早降)而切牌少(6副切1副不打)算出好牌的机会常高达百分之三十、四十。百家乐算牌获利多少?值不值得?* O2 J% {9 A" K% @5 y! j$ I! n; B7 m
6 N* _; \) ?: D  W" n
假设用8副牌每一张牌的影响如下表:
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原始牌庄/收益率为-1.05791%,-1.23508%,-14.35963%
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当足够的牌打出足以克服庄闲和输率时,玩家有机会获利。问题是好牌机会甚少:2 g: h, q  j9 d8 r# `  A. v; [

; l" p3 ]& S5 I' f' u- E所谓穿透率指一盒牌切多少比例不打,例如用8副穿透率九成指切0.8副不打……在8副牌打7.2副的情形下好牌的机会只有万分之1.77(庄闲和合计)……一万把(3000小时?)只有两把……而21点1万把有2000把!
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+ E: I. Q8 l8 W+ s# N# }. r. R一般8副牌很少只留11张不打(98%穿透率)。但即使只留11张不打,好牌机会仍只有1.2%。( t# r* N7 g6 x( Q

, l& ^4 E' y+ o如果用最精确的方法算牌也只“一年”找得到两次下注机会,百家乐算牌的用处显然太小。# v, m9 Q1 u- S; D9 R) L$ s
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不过如果你(因为喜欢?)非玩百家乐不可或可以拿到很高的退佣,算牌仍是玩百家乐的最佳策略。
* H( O9 t8 M! A1 Q+ \0 N5 T3 T3 t. k/ s" k
当然你不可能用上述的最佳洗牌法。博智在“打败庄家”一书中提供简化的百家乐算牌法。由于不同点牌对庄闲和影响不同(如“4”对闲的影响是“3”的两倍),不同点数标数不同:" f; _9 q1 F1 E2 r

% |: y5 ~( ?+ Y点数 标数/ k( R" @: N  h& h% @3 T8 L5 ?

0 W& U! h9 z; u: M( I! EA +1
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) P  z0 L9 ?) W6 p( ?5 D' b2 +1- o9 Y) S+ ^( j/ ]/ X. }& V1 }
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3 +28 ^  Z, U6 `' y7 V
7 ^6 a& l5 N: W0 V0 g/ d
4 +3* a4 d# [7 s5 Q' J1 W

7 ]; h4 r  ]1 S/ s$ }* x5 -2
4 ^. ~4 A5 Y7 N& `
( L; g/ K8 i/ c& k; |6 -25 `' p1 s4 x# J6 [  C" t
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7 -25 v! b& a, G, I. G" w8 c7 d$ Q) e

; i# Y3 |# ~+ h$ w' @. k8 -1
5 I$ ?* A8 V/ I% T1 J- y# E3 K# I# ~' F" K
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0 0
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# C4 ^$ w7 |; M4 l; ^* w自0起算,看到A/2加1,“3”加2,“4”加3,5/6/7减2,“8”减1,9/0当没看到,算到正值表示小牌出得多,庄胜算提高。' \- a* ^- h$ Z5 Q$ i; m, c: `, A% \
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算出的数称为流水数。流水数除以剩下的副数称为真数。不同真数时庄闲和的收益率如下表(%):
. B/ L2 h6 e% t% E/ {7 V' ]6 n# ~$ X' U) j1 a
注意真数“0”时为标准牌下的收益率,下庄-1.058%,下闲-1.235%下和-14.36%。-16时下闲输率-0.586%,+16下庄输率-0.51%。如果你拿到1.2%洗码退佣(依下注额为0.6%),±16时可以下注获利。若你拿不到退佣,得等-27时下闲(+0.022%)或+29时下庄(+0.02%)……大约玩半年会碰到一次。  Y) H2 g, i) r' q* E) `# {- a, b

* V$ M& z+ |! }* q5 f1 S' H3、结论
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百家乐的钞票不比21点美丽。鱼与熊掌不可得兼。想赢选好赢的,想玩选好玩的。扛了想赢的大旗玩好玩不好赢的赌戏,南辕北辙,不输也难。% U7 Y3 Z; h  S# r

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参与人数 1贡献值 +3 收起 理由
avatar 天策-萌二姐 + 3 百家乐的打法真的很多

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avatar
这个的话也是要了解一下了
avatar
3#
玩百家乐的朋友,认真看看了
avatar
你研究的非常透彻也是很科学
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这些忠告都是没有用的东西了啊
avatar
6#
不玩百家乐就是最好的忠告
avatar
7#
你还是先去告诉一下你自己的吧
avatar
8#
认真看看了
avatar
9#
我已经不玩百家乐好多年了
avatar
不知这个是不是真的管用的了
avatar
11#
感谢楼主的忠告,还是非常值得借鉴。
avatar
12#
忠告是可以去看看了解下啦 。
avatar
还是方法的,楼主的强项了
avatar
那百家乐这个东西真的非常难搞
avatar
这个还是需要能够多多的学习一下的。
avatar
16#
这个有点难度不好理解得了
avatar
17#
转载的也是很不错的东西的哦。
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