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“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。$ C3 S" a! B, F2 Y; }% a
( j: ]6 E* B' g! ^比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。
! W3 `4 Y2 s8 p: ]* _/ I8 \) b! ^8 c: R* T1 x
严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:7 _# o- d' W7 S1 f
* f# n Q% W0 S5 r5 }1 |% P一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;
: D% Y' U5 F& U, I! J1 ]6 i$ [8 _% N+ Z+ y
你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。
8 }% t7 E, n* B0 `6 M3 m, ~/ ^
$ ]# b( `- O2 e5 g$ e( |6 }# q那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。
+ {$ t% l/ k i6 P! q
. s: z9 h- v2 G8 p5 X你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,
% t# O, Z5 y7 W/ B" q. R6 ?% B; @- w3 s# n$ O `
只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。/ v/ T& ]6 V) O* I
\7 U, |7 k& i1 S: J9 Q这是四二法则中的“二”。
/ M6 \/ t8 X Q& u1 C8 e( d
+ B0 |% Q3 i2 a当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。
% r) o- l7 H5 o- k9 B! a/ `; @4 D' a. V4 X0 S0 d8 j) {# w' n' j+ Q
比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。
s. q# c1 E3 J0 ^9 C ?) S7 N! t! _0 ~4 g1 x) j0 g) h$ Y
不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌
5 e$ @; Y2 p& @& o% _# B1 x
7 C# t3 E/ p7 ~# G2 V+ _那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:) H: J. n; V) I% D
0 B, T* G$ O6 @2 `8 n% T1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。
, U7 L, z+ k$ [: u3 i& ]
$ N! W2 [1 }: R, r+ o% k那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。
: |3 b c% m" z( ]$ j% d) |* V) V0 C; l4 d2 q9 R3 M
这就是四二法则中的“四”。( t9 I5 I0 Y( E6 Y8 @
/ O1 `9 w! k8 f) l7 m8 B' d
总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。
' G$ Q9 _; Z; }6 }2 R% c1 {$ Z. ^9 J6 e+ a
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