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; v6 o9 ?+ t5 V$ @7 x+ L2 b8 U, ]
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为" o o. A; r9 E" F# q: g
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，- j3 H8 v, ]0 \0 T2 v
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
" \( e5 j0 W: M" q% \一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0. W. u( K; O( d3 B6 ^
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。% l" p! L9 @5 m1 t8 z
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：% ~4 x1 u$ z, X, x9 v# R* ]
2024年4月第四次减半
* w3 V# s4 e6 H" R9 ]; y机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
% y& \/ |- k2 a7 ?; }1 }. h8 O可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)8 [+ _2 G. H! v. N! z6 b$ V" @7 p
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
) x' p' I8 V! f& U二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
' [' k; b, t5 l0 f0 Rfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。7 B: {. Q0 L5 Z. W& a9 G( l
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠 s) v+ Z+ Q, I4 ? I
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
; J F5 _9 T9 o8 h! v三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
" T, m E0 v1 T$ ?0 T1 s L除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
; e1 |& m& |5 W. Q) w, o金融(TradFi)产品。
7 P7 X% j3 _% I) ]0 A+ y& E D如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨& i* [( c+ S1 I' D/ a p: c
链桥」的项目。 X! f9 S( h( @, u: W) S {
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉1 L4 f j: F" B& T
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
* H. w2 o* }. Z4 q7 l等。
' R0 S5 [* d% u+ {6 lPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用) n+ n. M8 p% Z* w4 \
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。 P4 C6 F/ i) T8 O- [5 z
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
6 e' O1 Q3 K/ q' e& DPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位7 S2 l% ?/ P8 s* }- ?4 j+ C5 }: k
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。' x' s. W. w' F9 X
Pantera点名了几个项目：# m) Z1 O* n2 a8 Q
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
. ?, T* O' p, ~8 X: K0 s8 @Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
. o- D' b9 T! w8 P* Y2 uModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品6 B' K8 R6 A8 ^
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
* [) Y/ Y/ |. xRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游
9 b: S& ?' m9 y5 q$ p六、小型公链需专注特定应用- u3 {! s2 y0 @1 G \
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
/ l" q% v' w( X) C至能直接与L2竞争。# {9 R, B5 ]. J1 O& i
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。* n" |6 T+ f0 B# @( Y5 H$ u$ A
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地6 d$ h" S$ Q3 a0 i) s; h1 @* u- Q
成为「应用链」。& b$ p' j9 e+ x1 C1 i. B
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。. s; X) Z Y y' N; U" B: q$ G! f6 s2 c
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