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[lastpost] => 2811625 华尔街两大监管机构联手进场， 加密货币与预测市场“野蛮时代”即将终结？（转） 1772680905 22301
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* e9 e- j1 y. b3 T( c
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
0 ?2 X5 j" p3 k, S1 o- qDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
4 {+ I# Q0 ^% N! [8 s3 @衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。# R, g( F7 D( m& k0 c8 s; j' U& p
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
1 _, w T) B; y8 r, ]1 zBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。) F7 _# m2 d8 |+ k0 p/ W/ ~
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：' U y$ k# [7 M
2024年4月第四次减半
1 ^* e' z( k; Y( e; \2 \机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF+ G+ e6 j* P' h
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)2 E' X: h1 {" O
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。; J/ @8 I4 i) a/ v8 V+ `
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
7 \4 @/ J( Q7 f) I3 a; Sfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。, ?$ A3 y7 U, Y
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠! p$ S, `, n# i) ]9 h9 ?# m; l8 ^
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。! Q: w1 K8 K' Z- \
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁$ E' |( v6 B6 h
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
0 Q" c9 u% S$ @3 D5 q8 j9 C金融(TradFi)产品。$ r1 w# m) |! ^) v
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨' j z+ R' w5 D5 c% G) R0 n# C6 F9 r
链桥」的项目。: p: q1 a$ T, [# o, q9 p. }1 B
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉' H. P6 n$ ~ V @
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作& T5 f Z6 X+ j3 `: O
等。
; w, a. }% q! X2 RPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
" A# F, _; _; E* B- l& c在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
8 u- [' S1 h% I$ ]+ J9 q五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
1 v5 l5 M; p" D2 u! o2 D& qPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
- Y% U$ Q' T9 Y! y4 ?& ?数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。$ J1 i2 \9 R+ m8 R9 n8 R- C) O
Pantera点名了几个项目：. g( |' D* q+ p/ X$ g! @( O
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图4 E5 j* L- W1 _6 d% ]& _& t
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
. O: E6 D2 C, HModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
+ R, I$ E- {' z8 o) n. LThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划: W0 e- y( A8 V; i1 l
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
: J) y0 P5 M W( G9 D- }六、小型公链需专注特定应用0 u- {, t( @. m
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚( g9 a% x- j2 `9 K& r; Y# {. H; _, F5 A ^+ E
至能直接与L2竞争。7 k9 ?1 _. \. K2 r- e" M$ v1 E6 s" L
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
3 V5 v) Y) w+ [ q1 J6 cPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
# [! ^. ^" ~7 p- b9 V) W6 i; j成为「应用链」。3 u6 K/ i5 t: M' w$ H" B2 n
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
6 O, q0 K* b0 ^4 ?9 q+ E+ P
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