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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
0 L( r6 D$ b& @0 W( f( J
# f1 r# }- ~. l 平手中水,主队有利
$ J' e! w9 C1 m N: z 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。1 @' [% R5 X6 j' O& ?7 @
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
; G& B5 n& G" [. R 英超主队7 ?3 h0 u1 e3 q7 `/ } w: q6 K: X; u
胜:13场 48%* ` t e5 L! v. J- y
平:5场 17%
( D* s' p6 k: L 负:9场 35%9 h g, _. K4 m( `, V
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。$ W3 S6 b: _8 z0 ?/ e* h
8 c6 j. n# ]3 b5 A0 o' Q 一、初盘阶段6 ?1 x* S8 U7 b6 u% @9 O. b+ q
具体到水位如下:. ?4 P6 N& [* }& `
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负3 r+ x; l# Z* v- K7 d0 H
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负& h; m7 P v$ y0 Q
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负9 E) n/ p7 o: W( U3 i
' }& o7 Y9 E4 m- \+ s) \$ O 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
& F$ g( W6 H1 V3 B# D 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
. l. R4 D: g" T1 I3 M2 ~ 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
4 R* H) i) b/ Y X! I7 ?& {
. h0 R( D9 N7 [# z$ L$ I 二、临场阶段4 m* E" l' q7 @
! \9 e9 L7 U+ l3 [+ C0 H- `
具体到变盘和水位如下:
$ S0 y+ y s3 |( m 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负9 Z# ~- x m* M1 J$ X+ |
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
2 v% s1 d6 O! _ H! M9 s* ? : B7 g8 s4 o! B x& i1 G! H
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
; _0 p r1 b1 w7 O3 z- t 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:. v# u0 I# K: X& t6 i
& w- _0 V7 c2 {/ p! R0 u+ H2 B
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿2 d) O3 x- f0 F `, |8 W& R
初盘:0.82平手1.04$ ]5 p4 J2 z8 E# K( c) K
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
A( C( ]1 _5 [6 f* K' Q
. H) h2 n5 j. C$ u 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆* t6 ^% B) x- _4 }' b$ ^
初盘:0.76平手1.10
1 @& z! B# @3 \; H7 W 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
* }& C+ U+ f v9 W9 x! |5 U& c+ Y
/ G" [0 K. N5 ~- {- f+ I# ? 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技3 Q. a$ l2 Q4 N3 l. P" T& A7 O
初盘:0.82平手1.047 V+ z5 J/ z1 t* q% K
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98& }( ]/ c; b# Q+ |
3 `7 S @3 p# V/ B* c 伯恩利2-1西汉姆, n) ^' B& o- [6 p" u
初盘:0.88平手0.98- c% J ~0 N# D' z0 l6 N
终盘:1.12平/半0.746 Y( z& Z( y( k# A
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
0 z4 Z/ X. O% ~; R 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。) J8 Q$ J3 @5 L
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
! v! N8 U6 A ~1 o0 a
' ]# M9 s+ Z2 Y8 | 三、球队表现& o) N) ]* ^, b
3 ~% e- S Z. S, a" C 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
. w. G+ B. b3 u; \& h# \ ' F$ N7 k- ^2 V5 A# v
四、投注要点
! l6 a8 j1 ?6 v1 r, h 要点1:平手中水、主多不败: v4 X% @: t* a7 b4 H- y- ?
要点2:平手降盘、走两头* r9 I3 j# O* h# [/ h! \
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败7 ?/ R- ~; ?* W. b
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大) I, |! }3 T3 L! q
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
0 q ]9 Q1 R& k- \; A 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大% U* A+ V8 a/ y& f# L1 f# {1 k
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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