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[lastpost] => 2659016 顶级交易员发布比特币警告，预测比特币在长期疲软和整合中崩溃（转） 1719129863 mattf
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历史长河的逆流，正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。8 J) K, `! ^+ V4 U/ x7 y0 \6 [% D
4 [) X7 C$ J8 l8 f( w q
许多朋友很不理解，为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4，不仅多数大宗价
: W6 _+ f8 B) _3 k5 E5 E6 v9 X8 U6 a7 ^3 x7 U- _
格在上涨，而且，类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速
! o; p; b3 R. T8 }5 J+ [3 k' W- f: ^) s8 [9 e/ A3 ^. I6 k
猛涨（黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%，比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%）？9 C2 o5 V* e# A& _5 {, ?: @8 }
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对此进行回答，之于事后解释，机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。
6 [# F# Z. x6 G! i- R2 r
- g( @, Z- `8 J9 W2 J+ m这样的答案，错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑，逻辑主次不分。
' b$ M- J; N; L7 f3 C7 U2 N! n' A% O6 w6 }, m2 G W
比如美联储预期要降息这一解释，要知道，从2022年3月美联储启动疯
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7 D7 [6 O/ Z* [. ?7 T3 [4 p狂加息至今，美联储的事实降息一次也没有，明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加
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" F g. a" y- @8 F) s了525多个基点——但是，在这一疯狂加息的区间，从2022年3月开始，2 Z, D' i1 h. C) {5 |. E, U
; k( t4 H5 s9 Y- V9 |& B黄金价格是大幅上涨的，比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。
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当然，近期中东危机的升级信号，这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉
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; K1 d1 |3 C( f3 W5 q% U# K升，但这事实依然无法解释，为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超' D( j% m M4 E9 z( K$ U. Y
3 i: {$ }% u/ B, d y1 k, v+ P高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。$ h- h% g ^3 {2 U/ }& S
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回答这一切，追溯这一切的逻辑源起，必须进行宏观升维，必须将其置# g9 D" a2 u5 L5 T# b l) a+ {* a5 ^* y
" I# @" S5 a1 A. u4 V. v3 f于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资' Y6 M8 X7 C3 ^
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产价格走势的研判逻辑源起，这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著# j% ]- J5 q& u) S L+ g
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跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。# @: j" W+ ?5 ^% T
$ K, g* j: y7 Y" F之于大历史周期，过去两年，全球化共识在加速撕裂，且这一加速撕裂之
3 [! V! ^! T$ T/ e$ z/ c* m. `: ~, \; [* a# l* y: y+ }! X/ ^6 K! K! q
于中长期，本质是不可逆的（当然，不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性）。+ |0 A5 F# Q; p# H2 g3 o0 y- d
1 q! I/ Q1 d7 L" a& p0 y而之于逻辑派生，全球化共识的加速撕裂，必然会派生出全球货币共识的加7 T4 l- u7 R9 O2 @& X: B
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速崩裂，尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。
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确认中美货币正在加速撕裂，除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外（与4 \; O; ?0 x" C2 A
/ Y+ E4 ?7 w# }7 b+ J全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算），还有更重要的维度，且这一更重2 D/ s% [+ l$ n1 ?9 D
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要的维度，事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。
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