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[lastpost] => 2798925 关税换领土?特朗普的“购岛计划”如何撼动全球金融市场?(转) 1769000175 爱美的女人
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势+ A( d" S1 _' P6 z& k; T
6 g" \8 I0 E' B6 c+ j6 B! `, L过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
4 R, `8 S& I3 E8 b! F# Y, \
: O' d0 W9 K8 A& P# B, a- m7 g9 hPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。/ T3 O, \, h) ^* _% D0 I! K6 d( h
2 D c$ r' e3 o- }
CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:1 Q7 ]8 f4 t n
9 v, Q% T5 `+ V1 i$ u机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
/ Z: {; a8 a& b! {+ o- o
4 W& `. |" x) B5 D5 @微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;! T* g& u% ~" o9 L" c! C
3 R m7 Z! A" C. w4 P
ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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) Y% U" ?$ Y* X比特币价值回归:+ U5 `+ Z. O1 S, Q
( b5 N, u: W ~* N# c2 ]
市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。 Z3 O4 W% l0 K6 E# d* B) S3 ~8 M
' t5 R8 T' E1 L, e Y; O随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。/ {9 S) S& S$ b+ ]0 |4 e( [
, ^% j2 K$ l" m9 Y
加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
7 ~* @" C, a J/ ^. j7 X& _1 [) U$ B! I3 e3 ^& E
3. 市场热点与反弹情况2 l6 q; d, e; \# d
, N0 b! W N: k! q4 E2 t. TETH:
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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) [& A% |- ~) U/ J3 o机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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/ M8 ^! Y5 B H8 e8 M+ f1 _# d: fBTC:
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$ { ]4 B9 A% b( a尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。' m. N0 k" l" ~
( r0 f$ h6 q0 ^1 u v- Z如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。4 a: E7 o m+ Y2 @6 J$ E' D% R0 t
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SOL与XRP:0 K; Z' Y/ }& b
: L0 u2 g9 ]7 @! S1 R7 J% YSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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# {6 z. P' J3 j& n, ]# dXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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# @* [/ {! ?& F- Z其他热点项目:) M& j8 X' ?. L$ @/ J. N A
7 ], v; {7 C& r6 `! n涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。8 g& D$ Z7 k) z
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。# Q6 J- A2 a6 D' W5 f% a1 e: b- O
6 U/ y2 B W2 ~" @) k2 k3 d# r/ Y4. AI赛道与新兴项目9 B8 F4 O1 F0 |* R
. C1 s5 l$ D4 S/ `7 O/ Q4 t+ UAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。1 N) [& C1 X) O3 o# r9 m
J |. _2 a4 N9 P" v5 X& l1 f蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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1 d9 S6 i% V1 x( L; N市场展望1 d3 U. X5 W5 E D
, ?+ W* w- C5 v+ |/ R# H9 m随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。& T, {, c1 B7 D# l
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