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[lastpost] => 2648964 【星宝】5月10日投注流水110518元(单日流水) 1715436317 rainwang
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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
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, e! k) e8 L0 q, j+ {会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。( `! c7 M( F# h& y' e+ z
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
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' e1 e8 P8 e4 E7 w5 ?% v首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?# Z0 h0 M* u# `+ g: D
( B N! k$ I I% l8 l+ b% J2 q请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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# ]! z; D/ I" Z) Z答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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H% D) h& k7 N+ x+ v& J0 v例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。9 Q1 _/ F# n Y7 |
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!1 b6 R! G# G8 P) A- `
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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' i5 N0 f9 M% M6 |0 K这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。. q z1 Y$ @' u* ^5 n* U
{' v; g/ _7 s0 y* A接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?& r9 C: C X1 ~' j
8 w9 P1 Q9 ?0 V玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。* `( J4 t7 H/ H
% s4 ]3 d& G: P& }6 f再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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6 g5 X" E0 o8 I+ I如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。8 `0 B5 N" t W1 E3 k; i6 w" C
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。* D* [8 v( R' A- \8 X
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下注比例 本金结果
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0.1% 1.001902
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0.2% 1.0036063 G# T9 m5 y9 Z3 t; P( y: M
7 |( J1 J% N3 Y& ^5 F0.3% 1.005113& e ` K6 I& [# Z. I' q0 l' [7 m! M
7 m& }# X5 k# y; b* H
0.4% 1.006421
% l" _4 u+ R) p( g/ c: C! _
9 M$ b- l7 D2 d }8 {2 s1 X5 @0.5% 1.007528
" o0 g# {% ^4 b' e" `- P$ x
. B* \8 v7 J, x/ q' X0.6% 1.008435
+ ?0 o* P' D. |, G
2 E$ M, W0 b. b5 y& E0.7% 1.009142
3 @( g( g6 S. E3 S' B9 n. ]4 J! T1 g8 a- ^# ]) o3 S
0.8% 1.009646
: d* Q7 k; v( ~3 {) X& L0 B; c0 D$ q2 n7 `
0.9% 1.009949
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1.0% 1.01005& z+ _$ d: J) ]( ^$ A. E+ ?
; Y6 [* w: X, y9 R2 B$ K z
1.1% 1.009949
9 O9 E1 \! v3 ?9 ^+ F k. O9 a0 y2 C. X, P( T i9 k6 [, k
1.2% 1.009646" k2 M+ f F9 q. n& h% ?
' s$ y* U! }& g7 i: ?' h4 k1.3% 1.009142* f& O3 v i! Y; C8 ^& A: D5 ?$ p
/ d4 ]" c9 O9 G. q- b' |2 M
1.4% 1.008435
/ K3 e! q5 N9 z6 d0 D n% E" h4 x) G' `
1.5% 1.007528
9 j0 k) F. h7 C" N- [8 w) M l, L+ i( T$ b1 |- V+ R
1.6% 1.00642( J# l3 r6 l2 L5 ~* E$ r; R' i
; b9 I; O# a0 l; e9 L. E1.7% 1.005112
5 A6 \3 b% H7 d& V* j5 y/ |/ q. d2 w( q
1.8% 1.003605
. s" F1 B- I' K1 d* E% b
9 u. d% I: l; g1 \& ]( X$ J$ K1.9% 1.0019- t E! M( Y0 n) y
* m4 m8 W4 k6 U, I; a1 R# Q
2.0% 0.9999975 S; A1 T% I. r- i* m0 Q/ ^
9 ~& F2 T! f* A, v1 T4 p
2.1% 0.997899$ A# N& T- R6 b7 b1 W
/ u2 i; f7 |% ?3 w" i( L2.2% 0.995605: P6 `2 O8 S4 Z0 c R* c) }* Q b
! [# H B( e# S7 J
2.3% 0.993118
4 h. }( ^) w$ l4 I4 a( c
. w! w; q( d; ?1 W6 Y2.4% 0.990439
/ F! z& X; f5 k1 ~2 \3 @$ w/ b4 n8 W$ @4 O# z
2.5% 0.987569 ~ ^5 Y4 y) M! ]: \8 J
9 v K5 p" |, y& T
2.6% 0.98451* s+ D Y2 s0 q8 N/ s- A9 g5 L3 ?
% E; x( G9 |/ V( A" Y6 q
2.7% 0.9812641 v+ K" X& r; a h! x, R, T. o* N
4 [$ M2 j. R! h! [& [6 l. ?4 j9 F
2.8% 0.977833: l l2 E" z) O7 V! O
. ]: m" i9 i/ _7 U5 g6 L- \! ~8 ]7 X2.9% 0.974219
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3.0% 0.9704248 g. m) i. n& j% A* A
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从上表可以得到一些结论:
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+ m" a, ]1 b7 E7 m1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利 l$ V6 Y- m7 C# X4 C
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!7 V! P* u9 }+ \/ s# E' U' o3 n2 u
; e6 ?: m1 y+ ?# A1 ~& H' U3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。2 ~( t {1 M$ }( O, O c# b
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