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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
8 _4 n8 H5 W0 b s1 i( a: J. E4 p
2 N% B/ r: u* R2 R会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
4 z: w$ u2 v2 A3 j- a( ?8 E) _# I' H: \
首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?! k. C+ p" ~! ~7 H6 W: o9 b- c
. o! j2 [1 K x) [$ [请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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9 M6 @+ G) }" u6 n答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!, B# i ]9 t+ G( t- A' z3 o
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
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" ?+ w- L! S5 ~5 j- s8 F现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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' B/ J6 O! N7 J8 b! k2 Z0 Q0 @: A" X5 t我们先来看一个0和的游戏。7 J. M$ }6 `: h
K( n7 @8 {- y8 }7 I; ^: c0 i
玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。+ u6 z! i( ^. H$ Z9 g
- M! u- Y5 `) k& P# B这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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) v( h1 b. J: X2 z. G& l. W接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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2 [; ?! g% e5 D+ s$ N& l玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。5 X. w9 P2 `1 `4 N/ Z1 I, K p6 V; w2 H
+ a) m* y5 F# x6 j6 |. p再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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2 _( t0 R9 |/ V5 [( D! G如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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; D8 @ G9 I' s4 y: T# ~% |8 D下注比例 本金结果
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0.1% 1.0019025 G' T& {, g+ z5 d
8 ` j* Z8 `! m' W% R% [! @. ?) N! I0.2% 1.003606
. h+ n- H/ B% x) e8 D; |: B9 {/ Z- [) M! F; X- d- k+ b
0.3% 1.005113
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* p( C1 v4 j$ Z6 O7 b0.4% 1.0064213 Z3 P5 I1 d# p# i; Q4 j
! L- n% z' k. k
0.5% 1.007528: ]. j. w+ l( S# p- R& ]' X
J/ N1 T# S7 j8 r7 d4 M* W: ?0 k
0.6% 1.008435
# j- \0 E( Z1 i$ d" a5 E) @8 T( L% g$ @! n' Q( b6 c
0.7% 1.0091426 ~1 f& B) i/ t" s' `4 T
& N3 _; ~, B; {2 Q7 u& G9 k5 \* o0.8% 1.009646
0 E0 k( e5 M* R6 o7 n
! S H7 H, G+ o6 |( u0.9% 1.009949
: C3 T! Y# f: n j' c ?/ M% w$ C1 V# V, N% O6 U
1.0% 1.010054 h! a# {4 [/ ]/ g
) X; J6 Y" x( s7 k$ G1.1% 1.009949
* Z- G" m* Z& e5 S7 z9 T/ M! z2 T( l5 y
1.2% 1.009646; a$ D) z# y& P. B7 A7 [- r
* l# d* K2 `/ J# G* W A
1.3% 1.009142
6 M4 a. W+ `2 O; m3 ~% n) Y( g7 o" U) i1 C. G( ~, k0 f
1.4% 1.008435
( y) X0 d8 P" O& t: b$ b9 {8 O
. w! D& I$ Y2 ^' `+ [: {1.5% 1.007528( D; A6 E4 Q. }) K: Q0 E
7 Q7 ]+ [# ] [. S) `1.6% 1.00642
. K* E7 ]% K# H' @" d \6 ]/ `. i l( p5 M2 o6 E' O6 `
1.7% 1.005112
* x$ g% [6 E4 j, Z3 P ~! E9 ^# Y! b7 w2 O- o8 \
1.8% 1.0036050 D" a' m+ ^/ e/ a
& }& @7 v: J9 N5 A" a
1.9% 1.00195 z5 W; s+ Q/ K3 R1 m
$ m ~) S$ `5 Q- p6 P2.0% 0.999997
/ V8 q3 {. X, ]1 M" y ?- e7 J' Q% x* E
2.1% 0.997899
7 | E4 o i+ `* p( H. t+ X! P; M, a6 {; J- K0 ?2 l3 L
2.2% 0.995605" w8 R. S5 L5 Q. a& g7 P; V
: k- `9 G2 l3 H% O, v, U- e1 |2.3% 0.993118
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" k5 Q1 g& ^5 n8 \7 k* l/ m2.4% 0.990439
( G p$ e4 k# z' I. i I
9 d, c1 V! i( q8 [, g, M; t7 W8 V* S2.5% 0.987569
7 H) i% x6 F% d! F9 r4 }9 `( I5 q8 ~, \
2.6% 0.98451
: [* E: E; ?2 q" k5 F
7 S- X7 n! h; g$ X$ G8 l7 k8 ~2.7% 0.981264% }/ u% H8 y5 V0 |7 K9 I
/ l0 n* d. E. L- S2 N2.8% 0.977833
4 e# [$ ?- W# G& Q( v; P9 K4 [6 t# ]! `) @/ q% Z
2.9% 0.974219
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# t9 g0 J- m! Q8 ^& N f3.0% 0.970424% B5 a, e+ o: c
) p0 k1 {3 ^) R- `' t9 K A从上表可以得到一些结论:) F$ W, j* a- R5 E( n" i
3 P0 h5 e+ @ S- x! \+ ^! E9 q1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少! A' E: z3 x- b0 Q7 I- Y) B+ }
/ w9 N+ p0 @9 `/ ?& j# \3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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9 l( v" v: F2 D! x& J, d' u凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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1 o, o, ^5 ~! ~; q然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。$ v! g; y2 i8 N/ ]& j
" V5 O* J- U# J+ H" b2 a以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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