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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?" n) b) V! j) _6 y
2 A2 j- A) Y& s" l会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
3 }* V( X( K7 P8 V+ D* h
. M( o. A+ v) s% ~. e- d' ^0 A其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
. o' m& l+ ? H/ v0 `9 c/ Z6 S' C4 `7 C: G/ P. d& x1 B. ]
首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?0 q1 a! n& l7 l" U
$ P5 J J2 v( b
请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。0 T$ \' ^5 S! Z) n$ b! O
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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6 ~% N' i$ A7 e9 |例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
: j) n+ D( Q4 K$ x; M" J. W/ u& L+ r' x* u) s6 |( v+ j( p
现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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" A: n! s; B' J' W" g$ [# n$ ?我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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9 \1 k2 k) \, b* S B玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。2 ?+ b, Q1 U3 E: m* h* L# \
- T3 k1 H% L- H8 v8 Z这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。5 s; k* q7 i& g5 v
5 v; [! v5 t* b) B$ ]5 e接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢? h3 o9 O7 t( G3 P& j
. {- H9 o9 f9 _# z+ F; A9 l玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。$ A# N7 F- b4 s7 Y7 T: k
* C$ k# y! P6 C R再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。3 u% u1 J# v: l: s0 P2 R: q
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。% Q! L6 W+ x) y5 R
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。0 i% T; T @+ U
$ d. r7 i( e7 F) \3 x下注比例 本金结果
! Z8 \/ w; N; ]6 b! B* i, a
4 x! A6 A" W. F; ?1 z0.1% 1.001902! Y2 Y- n! {& c) z+ g
5 M: o9 c8 I& b2 J, E- n9 j. L9 J0.2% 1.003606, [# `1 I+ y6 Q8 e; j! x- M/ d
9 f8 R( W; n7 B3 ]5 Y4 Y3 Q5 U0.3% 1.0051139 c' n, L! D, l2 c
$ ]- ?# d3 @1 Z( y
0.4% 1.006421
9 c/ T+ k. {; H R* w, V( z6 j" t& K# _8 o4 s: }; C
0.5% 1.007528
3 }2 x5 O! @' h* T t3 C2 `& F$ C. T4 k- M1 y% d7 r; J: B
0.6% 1.008435# U) t1 p% M: Q! @
$ i9 {# i) R9 R& {4 ^- z7 a& Z7 p0.7% 1.009142- w- P6 o+ {1 B. f
; V& e* u% k7 }( d l5 u9 q ~
0.8% 1.009646! y, W& K7 |- D& W8 {
5 `2 Z% b. O. ?3 Q
0.9% 1.009949( T ^8 P8 Z7 `1 h
$ S7 M5 w3 B0 s: f/ \1.0% 1.01005: L& ]2 x; x4 M
4 _+ |2 [& p8 B* R1 X* O7 \9 \0 ~
1.1% 1.009949
, {- X1 U! f: R* o1 O
y7 N: I% c/ d( P1.2% 1.0096462 N G, Q. i Y( ]- g9 [
l$ r$ N4 C Z' V
1.3% 1.0091423 h2 }& ^6 I9 y& k3 x0 \+ V( Q% \
3 `5 n) O2 q n% R8 t
1.4% 1.008435
( |5 {$ b7 y& V0 i: h
% @4 S0 a9 v k0 A: m, E/ H1.5% 1.007528
" U' {3 w. k5 S$ [, q" u
8 D2 T( [/ F- O! W1.6% 1.00642
9 u' }9 E! ?( e1 H2 j5 a: T
) l0 I; f# ~! M7 @! _1.7% 1.005112# u5 l1 C2 p% v/ @. c
4 Z! T9 {! C$ y( w
1.8% 1.003605
( z: C! }# I9 A
- y! A6 | K8 j- V1.9% 1.0019
7 y6 h, V, a' h+ L- Z( O# n) w! [* c; P: J
2.0% 0.999997, [& p# f! j3 [' W, ~
* u" g0 n) C: v# O! b2.1% 0.9978996 v9 D0 Z9 h& a A( R
$ ]; ?8 V9 w( ~$ \8 H7 @2.2% 0.995605
0 _/ ^/ [ S; \; @: V5 Y! y X# [5 O4 w" q6 B8 u9 ]( N
2.3% 0.993118
) r- Q4 c+ E: r% w0 F5 D! V9 B5 H5 y# l; v$ ?0 N* L- K
2.4% 0.990439
) v% v3 k( X% O& w, H- l- [
: |' i. Y. K$ Z2.5% 0.987569 ]" m, ~) {) z p2 @8 s1 D
3 z/ E) e' l' f+ p L+ R" V2.6% 0.98451, v' N' e# j. p C
% B# B# @9 N r+ G0 J2.7% 0.981264# }. Q) U* `" I1 `7 M6 F+ A4 m
0 M, e8 j4 ?! Z2 W5 f2.8% 0.977833
# W: a. D% q0 _( Y8 m$ D3 ]3 }- \2 ?
2.9% 0.974219
c" ]: D( P) L" @5 a# Z5 `
% E# Q$ o# ~$ d$ w; B3 R; E( r3.0% 0.970424
% f9 z. b T, a. g
6 m u* e9 g+ B从上表可以得到一些结论:' e7 Z1 D& ~" e
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利8 b2 T. J' y8 \- n! Y4 o7 n
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!0 v* r* {9 z! A: r0 F' R# f2 N |- H
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈* X1 | k- e% j8 g1 m% D* S
$ _0 E6 Z/ w6 t4 _凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
3 u5 l: ^' ^: J, ?' i
. j1 [0 U/ N& m- z然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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5 Z! w( C" D8 b6 ]( o以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。. K! t. T8 z9 P' R: X
8 V0 \* U O9 U/ j) Y3 z/ ~" ] |
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