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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?) v& l B2 W9 H/ K. `' B7 d; P
5 k% x8 f- N; u- \! A/ }会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。' K4 b3 ^% a1 N |7 Q# E
1 y2 F5 ^: M5 }' v2 m其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
9 A& T* X0 a9 n" @
7 {, R7 E& U/ D, Y- d* @首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?) \, f) l4 Y8 ?. G1 ^
. ]. c) [9 T5 R# V6 l2 t6 b5 |
请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
& `' H: k6 k$ s3 r7 z% W) j. k1 R/ s1 x, m: I; H( G- ?
答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
# P. g. G/ K! C% ?$ r: l! b# a/ f' g
例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。; m/ V4 ~9 p( y+ `. T7 Z# V
: o9 X- H2 y: _7 J现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?/ S e9 F$ I3 W0 w' b
7 K U* [- `" j! Z
我们先来看一个0和的游戏。3 Z# _4 L% l5 m7 X0 g# E
! A; U+ f( u" l1 J* M# |玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
$ ^4 z3 J3 d5 G5 Q7 n) R) X; \1 a) F8 r9 g3 ~2 f
玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
7 |# Z: D7 r6 j& H) p# V
4 D0 p; n' `5 [) f* `这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。# }+ l+ H" @, {4 {# Y" C) z8 N
: q8 \8 J7 g s, a接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?4 P$ S9 G2 z* i' b5 Z3 N
+ J( }' d0 z6 q3 T( Q# m# @% X玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
2 d" P+ j: B+ E& C2 K# B+ N' ^ u6 g: v M0 C6 V3 Z
再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
& C. m: M. |, B3 k3 Y8 t V
* [! n# y! _7 \1 u# f+ L如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
7 t6 w- I) Y- o# @# v4 S, a! Q( C& E/ |, ]
但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
5 t1 b! w5 a7 o1 F3 }0 }1 a; e) J" V
9 K+ Q8 ^0 p' F5 ?1 W. H n% g下注比例 本金结果
6 _# H7 h6 T% l( o+ U
1 |5 ~# `* }0 t+ ]% ^0.1% 1.001902 o: ]; i5 J3 d; _/ X" X* z
1 E! B1 b7 e6 X! _1 h0.2% 1.0036065 i* m/ x7 ?* \+ e; o
8 S& y) `% Z: j: w& d4 l! R
0.3% 1.0051137 }* U$ H6 T7 L9 A$ ?& u
' I" [: I3 H1 H/ R" y3 z! a0.4% 1.0064216 Z# O* ^) p0 V% A% w0 K
/ C* e+ \* m. e; _- B; F' P+ c
0.5% 1.007528 a' |. a, ]3 s3 Z& S
+ Y" Z5 l% G: M2 p
0.6% 1.008435
4 s4 _5 ]4 a( X! z
/ b z. M6 x9 E( \. B0.7% 1.009142* j6 c* }$ w( Z( X( P# L7 J8 l6 w
. W5 F9 |; _( l7 \' |2 w0 |
0.8% 1.009646
* C5 Q% h8 F$ y) h3 c3 z* Y R- S ?- u
0.9% 1.009949- \% g2 |2 |: _, Y% ^) j
- b* \% z8 l( F5 [& G
1.0% 1.01005
n; B( X; p' x, z* O# [$ [% i: A5 m
1.1% 1.009949
0 M/ Y) T6 W$ \% D# `+ g/ ^& P0 o+ W2 U) S# B
1.2% 1.009646% ^$ B3 H# {- y9 S
- _* w# @3 ?: L4 I6 u& p1.3% 1.009142
# `+ G, t* }, i4 s% W1 k9 X
2 x {6 x/ L9 Q% ]1.4% 1.0084356 h- X' |3 p7 e% v) c& g
) J% e3 k3 G$ B" C& L" |1.5% 1.007528' X M- e( C ?+ @4 s9 N
/ j6 t9 {! X$ f/ ~' U. T; Q1.6% 1.00642
$ F7 n" H: W( m. ]- ]6 k
! N1 W/ E6 e7 x, J7 B2 z+ m7 I1.7% 1.005112
( } w. v* v& z% |, q5 ~' Q3 r( T; ?- r' Y
1.8% 1.0036056 a' @% C$ G, s; D" a
) w+ y4 H; ?' A* ]1.9% 1.0019
, j2 q# Z$ F: M5 \
; g$ K$ E/ Q" R+ z2.0% 0.9999972 ^$ d Q: W* F
! o! G. |+ e, |8 p& }2.1% 0.997899
; ?& @$ l4 \$ A) t2 c1 v0 Q0 X" y/ P
# y) D* `& M3 M& Z" ]+ U2.2% 0.995605
( v( h8 z v5 B6 I0 G" ?5 r2 f- J/ G; \" x" U' F9 ?% Q$ x4 V
2.3% 0.993118
W+ n- m+ D v1 `' F) K0 ^
/ f3 {( }. e$ M2 k ~% P9 n2.4% 0.990439
4 ]' x9 O2 l! }- u3 [( V c ]3 H7 b% ] e) ` a; \
2.5% 0.987569
8 B9 F Z3 S* d$ C q+ A& a1 C2 ~0 w
2.6% 0.98451
/ h$ v: H. t( [, P* l3 F
2 [% g5 u4 n& c1 J8 K2.7% 0.981264
8 j' N- I: p$ b4 c+ Z* V0 n0 [, U1 g) n
2.8% 0.9778337 P) p; t% m5 Y4 p% `5 r* c
, m( j! H! @- Z/ w' d# d6 d5 O- t2.9% 0.974219& f: [2 j! q, j
4 t- E' p8 |! w% }* @1 T0 }9 U3.0% 0.970424' B! X! I9 T! g
& S8 B, Y' k( Y, i8 {从上表可以得到一些结论:# O8 N6 J: s; F) ^! c( h
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
4 T$ e* X1 u' p: a; w6 a$ Y6 w7 O) I( c9 I- _4 d6 S5 X$ a
2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!5 O1 H+ r0 {5 ^ ~
* `0 N e( `3 k& F# N3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈4 M; h P/ q. U+ g4 p
I; ^; A6 R O8 w5 F# h" [凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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' T' u# n/ x" N4 K3 A然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
4 u, e. ]) M3 `( t7 f8 s2 U
, z2 {" u! X) c以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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