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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
' f! s) b. p, K, Z7 F
9 H5 I7 U e/ ?# W, o7 \6 C8 T# t/ l' x会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。4 B( Q" U3 o# R+ v
+ \- m& [. g7 |# b: B. {其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
N. s! ^: i; T6 r
" a( t9 h0 h2 b+ D6 h首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
! a s2 M$ R5 [. _
' E7 h+ w! c4 Q& d, _4 k请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。; \2 Z9 x4 E) ~
6 L0 A! g5 b4 A$ ~* @答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。' A) f! T2 {3 G: {9 ?
4 L( {4 Z% x! H" h9 l2 x现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
; O6 ]! n% g$ C' F5 F, ?; }2 z$ l
& x1 F! u+ p. b+ x% h; H我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
' s" d( S; }# o
! B. w2 N# C; q+ q8 s1 ?玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!# I/ s7 W3 O9 E, R- b/ S# n
. _* x& K6 U: d- a玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
_8 x! _! C( ?) F4 G* n; {. I- Y& X* s1 i8 T( R
这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?" P2 z: F4 Z+ @0 i4 o4 C$ w
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
7 w1 \0 j" q: J5 c v
; |# [% y# [; k& @2 G, G再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
# l8 p# s* x) [# q
8 T# C' Q! Y: ~( c: V5 Y2 k& s9 l如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
m! v F- z2 d' v0 C9 W$ n
" P! P% ~- ?7 Y* z9 O但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
6 N3 K3 Z7 f- F4 |9 a! P3 v8 m
2 S( X: l a! P' Q+ i( q下注比例 本金结果
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6 g- E1 [7 E8 A! H0 X) H' q6 H, h0.1% 1.0019024 {; a4 p2 _. c, a5 F- [0 F1 @- h
! d, j9 v/ B: Y x+ |0.2% 1.003606
J0 v: t0 v. G; n. }; x3 J$ |, b5 {
0.3% 1.005113% a& k- W5 M8 [7 z
$ m$ f+ w: [$ u3 ~2 M% N
0.4% 1.006421; B3 x: A# X2 G3 A. @8 k# a* C
9 }- b9 z6 c; s9 ?$ [4 D0.5% 1.007528
" Y9 L9 a" d; |$ A* p0 w! _. m6 [$ W# r
0.6% 1.008435
$ L. C( o. N. w/ H. m+ l5 W) w! x# o, L
0.7% 1.009142 e) g8 m$ i, }- V( U7 n: ~1 M
7 ~, B, f5 S) c) ^$ D# R5 F3 A K
0.8% 1.0096463 v- n; s, A0 f- X" a3 ]
$ S8 S+ F' ]! \8 u, s1 |
0.9% 1.009949
% c$ L( K- I/ Y" R7 |6 {
$ m3 ~$ j$ E: j, c f1.0% 1.01005
: C* ~! T' \! ~0 r+ j& a9 Q3 [# }) O# g. ^( v/ D
1.1% 1.009949- m3 h% b& n1 p
) |; R% z# f) Z6 g4 e5 T4 N1.2% 1.009646' m& M! \* ]0 ^7 x' k
- `" k2 ~6 o) L6 B; T, U1.3% 1.009142
5 T6 p' p7 r/ ]5 I! l. y8 j
2 e) e; G [4 A1.4% 1.008435
& Y' d- r2 f. R9 r+ q* K# U. ~* A7 P# j1 a
1.5% 1.007528
& F* G7 l3 X& l: i3 [9 F' k' x# X: K4 A
1.6% 1.00642
4 j" `! ]+ w3 {* y6 B
" i: J5 K3 |! V, i1.7% 1.005112
' R. w- e) E# B% E1 K4 Z* K* E% w
1.8% 1.003605
& A" U! t" v' q
2 F( ]2 [) K6 k: F* m1.9% 1.0019, J% i- l7 \" w) x8 T/ j F0 n6 G/ X
+ K! b) E' J( @! R4 }2.0% 0.9999970 g2 K. b, d6 [' A9 l' N( b5 k
/ g' I; U0 g% A& n7 W1 o7 `& m
2.1% 0.997899
' v: R4 L' @7 N' t" G3 R5 K4 t7 A# H3 Z8 D" f$ U" C
2.2% 0.9956058 L6 p- p( g4 P) m5 k, n& d+ b0 q
6 x% R# X! j, n3 ^& D# b2.3% 0.993118+ D( b4 D* l; n+ W: X; |
% d6 A- l* K& P2.4% 0.990439( v5 F2 N/ `, d, c0 n5 C& D+ e% R; j
$ a5 r& t- L7 R: Z
2.5% 0.987569
5 N4 A- Z" |3 V3 P
, k% H. {/ G0 ^9 W \, V9 u! o2.6% 0.98451
* b& h, t0 v2 E* V7 K$ ?2 Z/ o8 A
2.7% 0.981264
! } |; l+ k9 m) i; w7 [9 p6 N3 ~% q8 \7 E$ ?% @2 p% ?
2.8% 0.977833% q) V' ~4 Z5 V& U. F& G
, M- |5 `, Z& V( C9 j* _$ \" g
2.9% 0.974219 [- V6 w, l% X+ ?0 `& w' M' k: l3 d
4 N9 e+ p9 O# `4 c3.0% 0.9704247 v( B$ \9 W. H) e6 m4 y/ C7 j
+ _7 q- d% Z" \$ `$ A
从上表可以得到一些结论:; t/ J% U! B2 C \; i2 V
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利5 L2 d1 ^* m0 x2 R0 k2 n
" N, P1 S3 a1 Z+ R8 o1 c2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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; m4 ~8 {4 Y0 I; p4 S. u( t s, P" b3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈5 K# F' `( i) @- r
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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% x5 i5 [* m* T然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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6 F f; Z' b( {: l, B' ~以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。7 B& x& x' d7 B* \' ^7 R) x
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