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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?# }3 W( L& A8 c: U+ l
9 U( M w! B! u( D R会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。5 Q& b9 G, h% ^; U6 Y
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!! B* }- Q4 J( |/ h0 o: B" |) P) @
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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& q7 a1 U% y6 u+ h9 S例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。) I) g# L1 z u4 s4 R
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好? I, A7 k4 }. c, p
' e7 W/ m0 P. j: O9 W* L我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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! h) c2 P1 D5 J8 d# g/ q# n$ h, T" g玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。4 h, {7 {# E1 |/ p2 N
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?4 u1 O9 s# Z4 D, K
2 c2 Z/ ~; a- n& [# P" k7 A& [玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。1 r- R' f/ R7 v% Z/ B% G5 Z
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。$ J* E R' W( m9 t& n$ m' w4 l
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下注比例 本金结果
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b L4 F% T' a Q0.1% 1.001902& O* C; W0 t5 C' e( {9 h& h
* a W8 {, p" b8 N6 k5 c+ g* c
0.2% 1.0036064 K6 ?7 L- \( Y5 x% L
3 |! \1 X! z; D; J) ]0.3% 1.005113
$ k. K' \ {; i# V( N
. W1 c+ Y! w' j# e" Z4 w0.4% 1.006421. ~) u/ x0 F$ C) Z _( V: N
& o7 J$ n# {/ b8 g# G& U2 a0.5% 1.007528( y0 A, g# q, q" e
- d, ^. s6 v0 {. ^* U" \- I
0.6% 1.008435) C$ L% y3 F, |% \
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0.7% 1.009142
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0.8% 1.009646- z8 ]* ?& O# |- C4 i( p% j) `9 B2 @
0 T; Z' d2 Z% ^# b3 t' L
0.9% 1.009949$ A% I# ~5 T4 `9 A" L. ~
8 [4 F* O; i1 }; C& r1.0% 1.010059 e7 S6 T, b, w, N* M) E0 Z, B
0 i, ^1 W+ G7 z% j1 t- _9 F3 x: B1.1% 1.0099494 F/ t- j# H0 y6 |9 I) n, Z, a8 e! v' X
1 y5 u& K% G$ t5 l! M
1.2% 1.009646
1 N6 b1 M1 G1 N! g* A0 L% y7 H9 L6 D
1.3% 1.009142
& \" B& {! y( [0 K& S+ L1 C) y
7 z4 {6 `3 d$ C- Q: M, U% g( l1.4% 1.008435
3 Q& S. U' G+ A! f0 d
$ m( U. X* z% M' ?: K, Y7 F* _4 u1.5% 1.007528
( t! ^, e; H: \8 A2 M2 z
0 k0 j7 y/ Q% {3 z/ r1.6% 1.00642
& D1 [4 u, I! [0 P0 w8 I7 X" s. p# t/ e% |
3 Q5 r @/ T! ?1 A/ s5 Z! \ O1.7% 1.005112' D2 N( O" e3 q7 f
) z( v: @: ~5 b
1.8% 1.003605 C/ i. J9 C) F5 e+ z/ l- f$ n* l3 M
( x7 A7 c3 J8 b* E! S
1.9% 1.0019+ V- s+ v2 J0 C) Q8 y# S4 w9 _
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2.0% 0.999997( c5 I* m8 {8 W
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2.1% 0.997899$ a9 C: [) I+ W/ X
8 r7 k+ t. v( Q; e _2 h
2.2% 0.9956059 O' h( [5 |! p. E. l
! N. C% z A: k" U& V& z4 c
2.3% 0.993118( v! {: G$ A7 u/ d: K
6 E' w# T" z5 P' w7 L0 e2.4% 0.990439
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Q1 n9 \! Z& [ e+ b2.5% 0.9875696 u# W( `. Y9 p; M4 _1 }3 T
: e: b) [9 d3 Z$ k2 A/ C1 S2.6% 0.98451
* l- |: G( a: A
+ j- c7 v+ h/ W* i6 \4 x) F2.7% 0.981264
! Z( q e" Q, _
, J( v% n3 W& F2.8% 0.977833
+ H5 m! E$ E$ K+ T3 i
0 ?% n+ f+ w- u5 t' F; W2.9% 0.974219) E0 N& ]# d& d! Q
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3.0% 0.970424
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从上表可以得到一些结论:
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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1 w1 k8 z' U# s( k2 `2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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( [# v7 y1 j! D, Q3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈/ g. Q1 Q5 a- a! t! A% }0 y6 [0 {2 f
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...4 N5 t! U* Y5 H$ W$ U- J/ c5 T
) n4 L& Z6 x0 S1 N5 N0 f然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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r8 x: D# k+ D1 q以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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