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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?5 l! Q; ?( L' v& G. F( W
- U* ?" h; _9 a: z! z/ c) L# M+ u8 N会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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8 T0 U; Q! \% j% ^5 ?" m) e/ X L其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!0 ]! Z; a7 S" |8 {( O$ x# N K$ b
1 F, K- L! f2 I* t首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?5 t: \# h8 ?. m4 r1 b _* X
0 z1 i6 C* w/ h/ e2 d+ m9 R请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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+ I0 f e& I- ^答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。& ~* G2 m' _8 F9 P, T
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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) \9 D5 n5 A/ j$ ~5 g6 Q玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!7 K. G+ h3 g8 {
% s$ p$ `7 c- r& M7 T! ^" s% K1 A玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。; ~; x2 V( {# _( s) m
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。# N' @1 h- H4 y+ W
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?% t# ~' d4 |0 ^% i% }) g) o
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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: S* j1 O. m1 ]- W" ^. I* n再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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+ C7 c, x( u6 v& y) o如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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6 F$ s# ^( c0 ?% k但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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下注比例 本金结果2 |& s/ F1 k; Y3 d
, \0 ^% k3 r' H" _ m0.1% 1.001902) U& W, a! m/ D% [1 q; K
4 z0 j# Y1 a/ D( f- `1 L
0.2% 1.0036066 D/ P3 y+ l6 q
& h: ?) f& Q4 b( A
0.3% 1.005113
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% n# Z, u x q7 z1 d$ h) V: U0.4% 1.006421! m+ a$ T* w& @. K) E& U% r3 t; ~
, g' s/ h g: f0.5% 1.007528
- J% j2 W# H% R& r+ m0 [) W
5 Q+ i; Q8 }( U: s; W, I- v0.6% 1.008435
9 _# q& e+ _2 i' F( j3 r& H, l e$ q5 H5 G, h0 A
0.7% 1.0091429 ?9 \/ Z) D7 A& B, b6 x8 R4 v
0 O! J6 [0 w0 j# ?
0.8% 1.009646
! z5 C4 U" A. T J9 l+ b, [% u- k; m9 c/ a1 ?: q- H
0.9% 1.0099495 \! F; M7 g9 u! Q
, i( @7 ^; U/ B ^3 @; Z1.0% 1.01005
) o* W1 y1 Y8 L% ]8 f- c6 s' D/ t b; [! ]& `
1.1% 1.009949
8 h" y( X/ }5 f! H# e* V9 r9 P3 W( Q
1.2% 1.009646
1 [% o& h8 n @' k" c
( {2 ^% _* t9 e$ \, u) M1.3% 1.009142
+ M& {9 |; U+ B. W0 X2 P$ r
5 r6 {- P' x* w8 |. f- p& [! B3 U1.4% 1.008435" v, B( M E) g. J: s
6 i4 J' |2 m& S j4 K1.5% 1.007528
6 b+ F$ b7 y7 v: n2 O% K
5 w! P: M$ R* s# b1.6% 1.00642/ ^; {4 Y$ \/ W
" e$ v4 A7 [9 e
1.7% 1.005112
% ~* f: ^0 l6 _% I+ J9 E) r( T' J0 \8 E: m) W
1.8% 1.0036052 d% ~1 P* a( u* i T
: F3 h6 n3 o& b2 p4 w4 f. ?1.9% 1.0019( o) [" B8 O" F
4 J3 h& q, i. n! U! N
2.0% 0.999997! h$ u0 t# a& ^# |! Y* D& G9 M
' A- m2 q, H, ], z* S( t [
2.1% 0.997899
) g6 o% Z( F8 ?1 h% e4 d9 a3 }, t* e) [
% v( i y% j$ C. B, y2.2% 0.995605
, M+ w; h; v" t' O# d/ v- y: {0 _3 ]4 m$ c+ H) K' ?" X" K7 W
2.3% 0.993118
: \$ y0 T3 T) J# X* \) R0 H& F6 b% d: A& O6 }/ b/ `1 X7 }0 P/ T) [
2.4% 0.990439- A& O9 B5 s9 C" }+ D. c2 R# q
+ |+ ?. S* s, e' y+ \: b0 T
2.5% 0.987569
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2.6% 0.984512 u2 }/ j% x5 U
' [+ E4 c* j4 X" o h! r& Q
2.7% 0.981264
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. ~! |- }: {, P2.8% 0.977833' \: b# W9 ^( @9 q
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2.9% 0.9742198 K$ e3 o# e* R
" N% B0 D& R* |2 j% C
3.0% 0.970424; v4 D: _% `4 L( q7 x( b6 P( M! c
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从上表可以得到一些结论:( |: Z0 H7 j! B* \- T9 s
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。) W! E' m. `' ^4 ]8 c$ t
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。; ?* ^$ }7 z% E# D5 V! z
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